The Detroit Lions have won three straight against the Green Bay Packers, including a Week 18 victory that held Green Bay out of the postseason. With injuries on both sides to impactful players, you have to get creative with the same game parlay picks if you want to place your bet in advance.
If you want to wait out the announcement of inactives, follow me on Twitter: @KyleSoppePFN, and I’ll be posting another option if/when the sportsbooks open up more options.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
Lions -120, Packers +100
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Who led the Lions in rushing yards in Jared Goff’s first game with the team against the Packers?
With skill players on both teams battling injuries that cost them last week, my approach is to target game/team props as opposed to the traditional route that includes various player props.
Through three weeks, what is it that we’ve learned about these teams? Well, neither team is in a hurry (both below average in offensive tempo), and both defenses might be a little better than we gave them credit for entering the season (both top 11 in yards per play).
Combine those early defensive numbers with some creative Thursday Night data, and we are in business. Over the past six TNF games:
- All six have seen seven or fewer first-quarter points.
- 40.3% of projected points have been scored in the first half.
Given this total, that would suggest that we are looking at 18-19 points in the first half, with the second quarter providing the majority of points.
Let’s close this out with a look at one of the player props that is available despite the various injuries. Jordan Love has 14 carries for 74 yards this season and has shown some creative mobility, but he’s not the type of high-end athlete who looks to run.
Included in his rushing line for this season is a pair of big gains — one coming as he escaped a blitz and another that could have easily been a sack if the defender didn’t slip.
Those runs, of course, count, but are either going to happen tonight and help Love return strong fantasy football value?
The Lions have blitzed at the seventh lowest rate this season, seemingly a conscious change by defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn after his team blitzed at a top-12 rate during each of his first two seasons and was a bottom-five scoring unit in both of those years.
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 27, 2023
As for those big plays? Yeah, they don’t happen on the ground against Detroit. Or at least they haven’t yet in this new conservative scheme.
The next player to surpass 45 yards on the ground or have a run gain of more than 16 yards against the Lions will be the first, leading me to believe that one Love scamper isn’t going to cost us this bet.
Remove those two big runs from Love’s 2023 stat line, and he has 12 carries for 26 yards on the season.
- Trivia Answer: Goff (46 rush yards, D’Andre Swift was next with 37)
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Under 7.5 first-quarter points, under 22.5 first-half points, Love under 16.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +353 (at FanDuel)