Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is coming off an injury-riddled campaign where he did not perform as well as many expected. With a healthy offensive line and improved defense, what fantasy football outlook can managers expect from Jackson in the 2022 season, and what is his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Lamar Jackson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It’s kind of funny that Jackson’s 2021 is largely viewed as a disappointment. Only playing in 12 games is admittedly a problem, but Jackson averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game and finished as the QB7 overall (minimum eight games played).
The problem is Jackson’s future seasons will always be compared to his transcendent 2019 campaign, where he averaged 28.2 ppg, the second-greatest season for a quarterback ever, and won the NFL MVP award. Jackson will most likely never hit that number again, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have more elite QB1 finishes in him.
The Ravens had a lot of problems in 2021. Their top three running backs all were done for the season before it even started. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards tore their ACLs, and Justice Hill tore his Achilles. On top of all that, the Ravens lost multiple offensive linemen to injury, and their defense was destroyed. No team lost more expected games due to injury than the Ravens.
With the Ravens unable to block and frequently trailing, Jackson had to throw more than ever. His 31.8 pass attempts were the highest of his career by far. The thing is, he was still running well! Jackson’s 63.9 yards rushing per game was only slightly lower than the previous year.
The biggest difference was the lack of touchdowns. Jackson averaged just 1.5 touchdowns per game in 2021 compared to 2.2 in 2020 and 2.8 in 2021. With a healthy roster, Jackson should easily be able to get back over two touchdowns per game and post a high-end QB1 season.
How the Ravens’ depth chart impacts Lamar Jackson’s fantasy projection for the season
Where things could get a little tricky is in Jackson’s supporting cast. He’ll have his running backs back, but his wide receivers took a bit of a hit. The Ravens traded away Marquise Brown during the 2022 NFL Draft and did not replace him. Although they drafted two tight ends, the Ravens did not draft a single wide receiver.
Rashod Bateman is their clear WR1, and Mark Andrews is their top pass catcher. Jackson will funnel the majority of his targets through those two. In the absence of a reliable third option, I’m expecting this team to be much more run-heavy. Normally, this would be a negative for a quarterback, but Jackson is the best rushing QB since Michael Vick.
Jackson should run more this season
Jackson’s pass attempts per game should come down, but the rushing numbers should go up. He has a great chance to exceed 70 yards rushing per game. Whether the touchdowns come on the ground or through the air isn’t super important. What matters most is there will be more of them.
I’m a huge believer in Jackson having a massive season in 2022. He’s my QB2 behind Josh Allen. While I normally wait on quarterback, I’m very much interested in spending a mid-round pick on what I think will be a difference-maker at the position in 2022.
Jackson’s ADP for 2022
I’m certainly not one to advocate for taking a quarterback early. Initially, Jackson’s ADP was around the early-to-mid fifth round. I definitely want him at that price. But more recently, it’s moved up into the end of the fourth round, around 48th overall. That is slightly above where he sits in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings at 56th overall as the QB4.
I’m not taking any quarterback, even one I love as much as Jackson, ahead of wide receivers or running backs that I covet. However, unlike previous years, I’m very much willing to take Jackson if there aren’t any receivers or running backs I’m particularly enamored with at that point in the draft.
Jackson is being drafted as the QB4, which is fair given his performance history. Given that he’s my QB2, I consider Jackson a value at his ADP. At the same time, I’m only taking him if no one jumps out at me at the other positions.
