Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson opened the 2022 season by setting the fantasy football landscape ablaze. Through the first three games, he amassed 749 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes, 243 rushing yards, and two touchdowns.
However, the rest of the way, he threw just seven TD passes and suffered a knee injury that cost him the final five games. Jackson now enters the 2023 season at full strength and hopeful that he can recapture the magic with a new set of receivers to throw to.
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Lamar Jackson’s Fantasy Outlook
Let’s open with some trivia. Write down who you think led all Baltimore wide receivers in receiving yards last season and where it ranked in the NFL (only hint: he did play all 17 games). I’ll pay that off in a minute.
Awaiting Jackson in Baltimore will be a revamped WR room that now features Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, and Nelson Agholor after he spent two seasons in New England. By themselves, none of those additions move the needle a ton, but as a collective, Baltimore could be building something.
Beckham is on a one-year prove-it deal after being out of the NFL for a year (2021 playoffs: 21 catches for 288 yards and two scores during the Rams’ Super Bowl run). Flowers is an open-field weapon who will work out of the slot, and say what you will about Agholor, but 118 games of experience holds value, and he did score eight times in 2020 for the Raiders.
Of course, Jackson’s passing production is most dependent on Mark Andrews. The duo has yet to experience any sort of decline or even change in role. Here are Andrews’ catch rates and aDOTs during his five seasons with Jackson:
- 2018: 65.0% catch rate, 12.9 aDOT
- 2019: 65.3%, 10.8
- 2020: 65.5%, 10.3
- 2021: 64.4%, 10.7
- 2022: 65.0%, 10.6
Could you ask for much more in terms of consistency out of a top option? With Todd Monken at the controls and some new toys, this offense should be as wide open as any we’ve seen in Baltimore during the Jackson era. That paves the way for untapped upside if he’s in full health.
I told you I’d pay off that question from earlier: DeMarcus Robinson led all Ravens WRs in receiving yards last season with 458, ranking him 95th in the NFL. Yikes. It’ll be better this season.
Can Jackson Regain His Elite Form Post Injury?
If you’re even remotely considering Jackson, that means you’re confident in his ability to return to form as a runner. Every season of his career, he’s averaged over nine carries per game, and that has elevated his fantasy floor to the point where he’s cleared 17 fantasy points in 77% of his career starts.
That’s the good. The bad is the downside that comes with the passing game and if he can develop a connection with his new targets.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football Player Projections
Jackson posted a career-low aDOT last season (8.4), something that’s not the end of the world but is worth tracking. My concern is that his completion percentage and passer rating from the pocket have dipped each season of his career.
If, when he escapes the pocket, defenses don’t feel threatened by Jackson as a passer, his fantasy stock could crumble. That said, if the additions allow him to thrive in that respect, we could be looking at fantasy’s top QB.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Jackson at His ADP?
Due to the floor that comes with an athletic marvel like Jackson, I’m not going to put him on my “avoids” list, but I would be lying to you if I said he was a target of mine entering 2023. In fairness to Jackson loyalists, that’s less about him as a player and more about the draft.
Robert Griffin III loves what he sees from Lamar and the Ravens…@RGIII #NFL #LamarJackson #Ravens pic.twitter.com/9TGMQzD5p4
— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball)
I have him pegged as a decent preseason MVP bet, but I’m more likely to take the two-round discount and ride with Trevor Lawrence this season. If you’re looking at his specific spot on the board (early fourth round), I find myself landing on T.J. Hockenson at the end of the elite TE tier instead of selecting Jackson, a player I have in an extended second tier of signal-callers that, yes, includes the aforementioned Lawrence.
Jackson could come out on fire (again) with Houston and Indianapolis on his September slate. Yet, a Week 13 bye and a Week 16-17 stretch that sees Baltimore play at San Francisco before traveling back home on a short week to play a good Dolphins defense is worrisome when it matters most for fantasy.
