As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Lamar Jackson.
Lamar Jackson’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
For the 2023 season, there’s Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and then everyone else. But heading into the 2022 season, Jackson was right there with them.
Ever since his historic MVP run in 2019, resulting in an overall QB1 finish at 28.2 fantasy points per game, Jackson’s fantasy production has decreased every year. But the reality is he was never going to do that again. Elite fantasy quarterbacks throw in outlier seasons every now and then, but Jackson is unlikely to surpass 25 ppg more than a couple of times the rest of his career, if at all.
The thing about Jackson’s “decline” in the past three seasons is it only looks bad relative to the lofty expectations he created for himself. Since 2020, Jackson has posted seasons of 22.8, 21.1, and 20.3 ppg. Those were good for the QB8, QB7, and QB6 finishes in each season. So, even when Jackson is “bad,” he’s still a mid-QB1, at worst.
The real culprit behind a dip in Jackson’s fantasy value is injuries. Not only has he missed five games in each of the past two seasons, but they’ve been the final five games. That means he helped propel fantasy managers to the playoffs and then peaced out during the season’s most important weeks.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Through four seasons as a starter, Jackson has established a high seasonal floor. He also has the highest weekly ceiling of any quarterback. Remember, Jackson started the 2022 season with games of 21.2, 42.6, and 40.4 fantasy points.
Fantasy managers would prefer more certainty when it comes to Jackson’s future. Understandably so. It does not look like he and the Ravens will reach an extension prior to free agency. As a result, I fully expect him to get slapped with the franchise tag.
There is quite literally a 0% chance the Ravens just let him walk. I would place the odds he’s on the Ravens in 2023 at 99%. If the 1% outcome hits, it will be via a de facto trade, as the Ravens will get two first round picks from whichever team signs Jackson if they choose not to match. Extension or not, Jackson will be under the Ravens’ control after the free agency flurry concludes.
It would behoove the Ravens to improve their offensive scheme and get Jackson some weapons. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken should help. He can’t be worse than Greg Roman.
A healthy Rashod Bateman will also be a boon for Jackson’s value, but they really need a big-bodied outside receiver. Perhaps they can maneuver a trade for DeAndre Hopkins. Or, although he’s not a big receiver, acquire Brandin Cooks.
Lamar Jackson’s Fantasy Ranking
There are plenty of reasons to remain bullish on Jackson’s long-term outlook. While his skill set will almost certainly result in his career ending by his mid-30s, he’s still just 26 years old. He’s got at least 5-7 strong years in front of him.
Ultimately, I do expect the Ravens to work out a long-term deal with Jackson, locking him up for the bulk of the remainder of his career. As the most prolific rushing quarterback since he entered the league, Jackson will remain at least a mid-QB1 for as long as he can run at a high level.
Currently, Jackson sits at QB8 in our latest dynasty Superflex rankings, No. 16 overall. I would still be interested in targeting him in dynasty startup drafts. It would not surprise me at all if Jackson was back inside the top five dynasty QBs by this time next year.
If the Ravens can rework the offense and get him some weapons, being the overall QB1 remains in his range of outcomes. I would look to buy any dip in Jackson’s value that may emerge.