After a season in which Kyren Williams was undrafted in most fantasy football leagues, he’s now garnering first-round consideration. As a fifth-round pick in 2022 who had just 44 touches in his rookie season, not much was expected in 2023. After his breakout campaign, it’s easy to buy what Williams is selling—but is the cost too high?
Should You Select Kyren Williams at His Current ADP?
ADP: 15th Overall (RB7)
Williams is coming off the board in the early second round, and I think that’s about right. I’m skeptical about drafting a running back in Round 1, but if you lock in a target monster receiver with your first pick, Williams’ volume (20+ carries or a touchdown in 10 of 12 games last season) is a perfectly reasonable second player on your fantasy roster.
The asking price is steep for a player who just broke out, but every metric points to Williams’ production being sustainable. I’m starting several 2024 drafts with a wide receiver in the first round and a running back in the second — Williams very much fits into that build.
Williams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Trying to strike while the iron is hot is of the utmost importance at the running back position, and the momentum created by Williams entering his age-24 season is impossible to deny.
In 2023, the former Golden Domer was the most common running back to appear on ESPN championship rosters. Not only did he rack up 1,350 yards and score 15 times in 12 games last season, Williams posted a profile that suggests he’s just getting started.
Was Kyren Williams the biggest surprise of the 2023 season?@kyrenwilliams23 | @RamsNFL pic.twitter.com/1KI7Basmnn
— NFL (@NFL) March 29, 2024
During his breakout campaign, Williams caught only 66.7% of his targets. Running back catch rate is consistently in the 70% region, and due to the low-risk nature of those targets, there’s no real reason to think that he won’t trend in that direction.
If that happens, he might not only return first-round value, but he stands to join the top tier at the position.
Last season, Williams showcased a skill set that includes elite vision and physical running. He led all qualified RBs (minimum 110 carries) in yards per carry gained before contact, a stat that speaks to his connectivity with the offensive line as well as his ability to take advantage of overcommitted defenders.
And once Williams gets running downhill, forget about it.
Off the top of your head, who are some of the hardest runners in the league? My guess is that Jonathan Taylor (one broken tackle every 12.1 carries in 2023), Derrick Henry (12.2), and Isiah Pacheco (13.7) all come to mind without much thought.
Well, Williams shed a defender once every 11 carries a season ago, putting him in a position to repeat or even improve upon his efficiency.
The NFL Draft resulted in Williams’ fantasy ADP falling a bit, as the Rams selected Michigan’s Blake Corum in Round 3. That was LA’s only investment on the offensive side of the ball in the first five rounds, and they elected to target a position of strength.
I’m not sweating it. NFL running backs are always one carry away from their season ending, and with the short shelf life of the position, I’m not reading the drafting of Corum as a threat to Williams; he’s an insurance policy more than the competition.