Kyler Murray Dynasty Profile: Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

Coming off a down year and a torn ACL, what does Kyler Murray's future look like, and what is his value in dynasty fantasy football leagues going forward?

As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Kyler Murray.

Kyler Murray’s Dynasty Outlook and Value

Murray really is the total package at quarterback in fantasy football. Given his skill set, he should be a perennial threat to finish as the overall QB1. Now, to be fair, he kind of was that in 2020 and 2021. It’s just throughout his entire career, his production has been somewhat fraudulent.

After finishing as a back-end QB1 as a rookie in 2019, I was all in Murray in 2020 and again in 2021. He averaged 24.4 and 22.2 fantasy points per game in those two seasons. By all accounts, he should’ve been someone I was all over again in 2022. Yet, Murray was my No. 1 “fade/avoid at all costs” quarterback. Let’s get into why because it’s key to understanding his dynasty value.

Murray’s 2020 was fantastic. For the first 10 weeks, he averaged 29.2 ppg. But from Weeks 12-17, he averaged just 16.5 ppg. Murray carried your fantasy team to the playoffs and then left it to fend for itself. OK. No big deal. We dismiss it as a one-off.

That brings us to 2021. Murray scored over 30 fantasy points three times. He added another 26-point effort. The problem is he scored 32.4% of his fantasy points in Weeks 1, 2, and 13. In his other 11 starts, he averaged 19 ppg.

From Weeks 1-7 in 2021, Murray averaged 24.8 ppg. Over the rest of the season, he averaged 19.5 ppg. By no means are those numbers bad. But the perception of Murray has been he’s either in or close to that elite phylum of quarterbacks. In reality, he’s closer to the Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr class.

So, was 2022 any different? Was I punished for my heavy fade of Murray? Not even a little bit.

MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Murray averaged 18.9 ppg, finishing as the overall QB7. He once again gave fantasy managers three or four high-end performances, along with a bunch of mediocrity. Murray struggled mightily under pressure, finishing 30th in pressured completion rate. He also couldn’t get anything going downfield, with his deep-ball completion percentage going from first to 32nd compared to 2021.

There is hope for Murray. The Cardinals fired Kliff Kingsbury and replaced him with Jonathan Gannon. Kingsbury was supposed to orchestrate this explosive offense that utilized Murray’s dual-threat ability. Instead, we got the “Horizontal Raid.” Change is good for Murray.

The bigger problem is Murray’s knee. Unfortunately, Murray tore his ACL in Week 14, and early reports indicate he will not be ready for Week 1.

The Cardinals were not a good team in 2022. Without Murray, they will likely be one of the worst teams in football in 2023. If Murray isn’t ready to return until midseason and the team is very clearly going nowhere, there will be very little incentive for the Cardinals to bring him back at all. I would say it’s more likely than not that the next time we see Murray is in 2024.

Trading away clear fantasy starting quarterbacks in their age-26 season is not exactly what you want. It’s especially problematic when trading that player is going to provide a reduced return due to a likely lost season.

Kyler Murray’s Fantasy Ranking

Given Murray’s age and proven upside, he remains a QB1 in dynasty. But if you’re a win-now team, you have to consider moving him.

We have him all the way down at QB10, No. 19 overall in our latest dynasty Superflex rankings. It’s quite the precipitous decline from a guy who was in the consensus top five heading into the 2022 season.

Despite my issues with Murray, I was once one of his biggest supporters. If a new coaching staff can truly unlock him, he can be an elite QB1 in fantasy. If you’re rebuilding in 2022, see if you can get Murray for less than full price and take the shot that a new coaching staff can figure out how to properly run this offense and turn Murray into the talent we know he can be.

In dynasty startup drafts, it’s much trickier. Selecting Murray is essentially punting Year 1. If you’re going down that road, Murray makes sense, but once you do it, you’re committing to it.

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