Kyle Pitts was widely regarded as one of the best pass-catching tight end prospects to come into the NFL and became just the second TE in league history with at least 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season.
So why does it feel like much of the fantasy football community is ready to abandon him heading into his third season?
Can Pitts have a big bounce-back season in 2023? Let’s take a closer look.
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What Exactly Happened to Kyle Pitts Last Year?
The combination of injuries and Marcus Mariota replacing pocket passer Matt Ryan under center did Pitts absolutely no favors his sophomore season.
His targets per game dropped from 6.4 to 5.9. His receptions dropped from 68 to 28. And his receiving yards plummeted from 1,026 to 356.
The offensive approach completely changed with Mariota under center. The Falcons finished 19th in passing attempts (573) in 2021 and cratered all the way to 31st (415) in 2022.
As if the offense choosing to focus solely on the ground game wasn’t enough, Pitts battled a muscle strain early in the season and tore his MCL in November to end his 2022 campaign for good.
What Can We Expect From the Atlanta Falcons Offense in 2023?
Ridder me this fantasy football fans…
Who averaged more passing attempts per game for the Falcons last season: the eight-year veteran Marcus Mariota or the rookie Desmond Ridder?
Well, if you guessed the rookie, then you would be correct.
Mariota averaged a brutal 23 passing attempts per game through the first 13 contests, while Ridder finished just under 29 passing attempts per game for the final four outings of the season.
For more context, Pitts did not appear in any of the four games Ridder started. During those four starts, all of the Falcons’ tight ends combined to produce 14 receptions for 138 yards and a TD.
Will Kyle Pitts Bounce Back in 2023?
For starters, it’s not exactly encouraging that Pitts has started training camp wearing a knee brace.
Whether you still have questions about his durability or not, at least he is on the field to start training camp.
Now, let’s be kind and assume Ridder has earned the trust of the coaching staff heading into his second season, and the Falcons open up the offense and let him throw the ball on average an additional five times per game than he did his rookie year.
That would project Ridder to 573 passing attempts, which would be the exact number of times the Falcons threw the ball in 2021.
When Pitts was healthy in 2022, he still had a great target share (27.3%) and target rate (34.3%).
Now, how many scoring opportunities will there be for this Falcons offense this season? It will depend a lot on the development of Ridder and the impact of rookie RB Bijan Robinson.
Could Robinson help this offense stay on the field and produce more scoring drives? He could…
Could Robinson dip into Pitts’ target share because of his skills as a pass catcher? He could…
Will Ridder evolve as a QB and help unlock Pitts’ fantasy ceiling? That is a complete unknown at the moment.
Assuming he can stay healthy, Pitts should see a large enough share of the passing work in this offense to register a top-10 fantasy season at the TE position.
So, do I believe Pitts will have a bounce-back season in 2023? Yes.
However, the question marks surrounding his quarterback, the run-heavy scheme in Atlanta, and some durability concerns have me steering clear of projecting a top-five breakout campaign for Pitts in 2023.