Kenneth Walker III’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

The Seattle Seahawks have two talented RBs on the roster. What should dynasty fantasy football managers do with Kenneth Walker III?

Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III faced competition for the team’s lead-back role after they drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Yet, Walker was able to maintain the lead role and was clearly the more valuable running back in fantasy football. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?

Kenneth Walker III’s Dynasty Outlook

Before the NFL Draft, Walker was being projected as a second-round pick in redraft leagues and considered by many to be a top-five dynasty RB. Naturally, the moment the Seahawks announced Charbonnet as their second-round selection, that changed.

There were two conflicting philosophies on Walker. On the one hand, he was the incumbent. His rookie year was very good, and he proved capable of being a starting NFL running back.

It was his job to lose.

On the other hand, the Seahawks did still draft Charbonnet. If they were so enamored with Walker, why go and use yet another second-round selection on a running back?

The key to understanding this backfield is knowing how Seattle operates. This is the same organization that spent a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny, only to leave him well behind Chris Carson at every opportunity. Even when Carson got hurt and Penny thrived, the seventh-rounder would get the job back as soon as he was healthy.

Then, when the Seahawks drafted Walker, he opened the season firmly behind Penny. It wasn’t a timeshare; Walker was the backup. Had Penny not gotten hurt, it’s possible Walker never would’ve ascended beyond change-of-pace guy.

The 2023 season opened just as the 2022 season did, except it was Walker in the Penny role, and Charbonnet in the Walker role.

However, the concern wasn’t that Charbonnet would necessarily take Walker’s job. Not at first. Rather, what would happen if Walker got hurt and Charbonnet played as good or better?

The good news is we saw this exact scenario occur. In Walker’s absence, Charbonnet played well, but not quite as good as Walker. He didn’t do anything spectacular that would threaten Walker’s job. So, when Walker returned, while not quite at his previous level of volume, he was still the lead back.

All of this is to say I believe Walker will once again be the RB1 in Seattle and will remain so unless he suddenly and unexpectedly becomes bad at football.

For fantasy managers, the bigger concern is that Walker appeared to stagnate a bit from his rookie to sophomore year. He averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game in 2022, which remained about the same at 13.3 in 2023.

As a rookie, Walker averaged 4.6 yards per carry, but that dropped to 4.1 as a sophomore. He also produced fewer explosive plays, running for 15+ yards on 4.6% of his carries, a 2.9% drop from the year prior.

On a more positive note, Walker was even more elite at making defenders miss. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate improved from 12th to second.

The biggest issue with Walker’s fantasy upside is his receiving role. His 7.7% target share last year was right in line with his rookie season. The Seahawks deliberately pulled him on third downs in favor of literally whoever else was there. Even when it wasn’t Charbonnet, it was Travis Homer or DeeJay Dallas.

MORE: 2024 Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings

Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Walker to ever be more than a 1-2 receptions-per-game RB. The NFL as a whole is moving away from throwing to running backs. A two-down grinder like Walker isn’t suddenly going to catch 40-50 balls. As a result, his fantasy upside remains somewhat capped.

Like so many other running backs, Walker’s fantasy performance is going to be very sensitive to how frequently he scores. He scored nine touchdowns in each of his first two seasons but has the potential to score 15+ times in a year. It’s just impossible to predict and would likely just require the Seahawks’ offense to be good.

Walker’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Walker land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Walker lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) De’Von Achane | MIA
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
12) Josh Jacobs | LV
13) Kyren Williams | LAR
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | PHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Tony Pollard | DAL
18) Tyjae Spears | TEN
19) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
20) Joe Mixon | CIN
21) Alvin Kamara | NO
22) David Montgomery | DET
23) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
24) Derrick Henry | TEN

Should You Trade Walker in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Walker? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!

Walker is clearly talented. He’s also just 23 years old. That combination of age and ability keeps him inside the top 12 dynasty running backs. The concern is I’m not sure there’s much more to unlock from Walker than what we’ve already seen.

You never want to trade away a 23-year-old dynasty asset. But with Walker, it might be wise to see what you can get for him.

KEEP READING: Top Dynasty RB Trade Targets

While I don’t envision Charbonnet taking his job, an increased role for the now second-year player would be a huge problem for Walker. Charbonnet saw a 37.7% opportunity share last season. Even if that only ticks up to 42-43%, it could be a problem. Walker needs to maintain his stranglehold on rush attempts and goal-line work to be effective.

It’s entirely possible Walker won’t finish his career in Seattle. It’s probably likely. But that’s still at least three years away. The RB landscape can and will shift dramatically between now and then. If Walker’s perceived value is greater than his actual value, he’s the exact type of asset you want to trade.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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