Following a cross-country move to a new team for the first time of his career, New England Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne hopes a change of scenery can help jump-start his career. Does the change bring an improved fantasy football outlook, or is Bourne someone to disregard at his current ADP?
Kendrick Bourne’s fantasy outlook for 2021
It would be fair to say that Bourne has been an afterthought for fantasy managers since coming into the NFL in 2017. In 58 games for the 49ers (2017 to 2020), Bourne recorded 218 catches for 1,769 yards and 11 touchdowns. In 2020, he posted new career marks in receptions (49) and receiving yards (667) while scoring 2 touchdowns. But for fantasy, this hasn’t exactly been enough to move the needle.
Last season, Bourne was the WR60 in PPR, averaging 7.0 ppg. This was also in a season where Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all missed multiple games. For his career, we see a similar picture. From 2017 to 2019, Bourne had fantasy finishes as the WR118, WR64, and WR70 while playing an average of 47% of the snaps.
Despite this, the Patriots felt Bourne was an important piece of their offseason plan, signing him during free agency to a three-year, $15 million contract that could reach $22.5 million with incentives.
Bourne’s role in the offense in 2021
Bourne played primarily in the slot for the 49ers and would project to do the same for the Patriots following Julian Edelman’s retirement. That also brings up the question of his role compared to Jakobi Meyers.
Playing in the slot, Meyers totaled 45 yards or more in 9 of 11 games (81.8%), including two with 110+ yards. From Week 7 and on, he averaged 7.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 65.6 yards as the WR22 in fantasy. For comparison, Bourne has just six games with 65+ yards in his entire career.
I have been wrong before, but I do not see Bourne carving enough of a role for a desirable fantasy outlook in 2021.
Fantasy projection
The Patriots are going to be a better offense and team in general in 2021. Not only did the offense struggle, but they had eight players on defense opt out.
If we look at their previous five-year average, the stats paint a clear picture. From 2015 to 2019, New England averaged 27.8 points on 66.8 plays per game. Moreover, the Patriots averaged 37 passing attempts for 269.2 yards. In 2020, points (20.4 ppg) and plays (61.2 per game) fell, and passing slid to just 27.5 attempts and 180.6 yards. It could have been even uglier if not for the fourth-best rushing offense (31.4 attempts for 146.6 yards).
Not only did they add Bourne, but the Patriots also signed Nelson Agholor, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry in free agency. Furthermore, they drafted Mac Jones at No. 15 overall. The question is, how will the change in personnel impact the overall scheme of the offense? We should see an increase in 12 personnel, focusing on Smith and Henry. This would be a drastic shift after using this personnel grouping a league-low 2% in 2020 (22 snaps).Â
If this is the case, the receivers likely to see the most snaps would be Agholor and Meyers. While N’Keal Harry is a logical fit, his poor play and his agent requesting a trade remove him from the conversation. I feel the odd man out ends up being Bourne, as he plays between 40 to 50% of the offensive snaps but struggles for production, given the overall low volume of the offense.Â
In early projections, Bourne could see around 45-50 targets with 30 receptions for 350-380 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Kendrick Bourne’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Bourne has an ADP of 233.1. On Fleaflicker, he is currently going with an ADP of 350.
Should you draft Bourne in 2021 for fantasy?
Where Meyers is a must-draft, Bourne is someone to avoid, as there is no clear path for fantasy production in 2021. We need to see what his role will be on the offense. That will only come through actual games — we know the Patriots will never tell us anything beforehand.
If we see something different than what is being projected, you can grab Bourne off waivers for nothing. I would feel much better about going that route than spending a crucial draft pick on him. There is also a chance that, at some point, we see Jones under center to replace Newton. We would then need to reevaluate the entire offense and individual roles.
