The Chicago Bears entered the season with expectations of being one of the richest sources of fantasy football production for a change. But an inconsistent start has left managers wondering who they can rely on in the Bears offense. Below we take a look at the Chicago receiving corps to determine who among their top three is the most reliable entering Week 5.
Should You Start Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, or DJ Moore in Week 5?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings point to DJ Moore as the player to start. His projected 14.3 PPR points include five receptions for 67 yards. Keenan Allen, meanwhile, is projected for 11.0 fantasy points, while Rome Odunze is at 10.9.
Due to Moore’s consistent weekly role in the Bears offense, he does stand out as the best option for fantasy managers to start.
Allen, Odunze, and Moore’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Moore is the Bears’ clear leading receiver this season with 22 receptions for 389 yards, though some of that is due to Allen missing two games with a heel injury. So far, the most alarming part of Moore’s season is the decline in big plays.
He’s currently averaging a career-low 8.6 yards per reception, which ranks 79th out of 86 qualifying receivers. It’s far below Moore’s 14.2 mark from last season, and the film has caught some unflattering lapses in effort and/or attention this year.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen DJ Moore not put out effort in a Bears uniform. I’m hoping he just got lost on this play and wasn’t frustrated that he didn’t get the ball. pic.twitter.com/I0zQNbCW2G
— IDF (@IDF162)
Still, Moore is being targeted on 21.7% of his routes, not far off from his 23.0% rate last season. He also has a team-high six red-zone targets on a 35% target rate after receiving just 11 in all of 2023. That puts Moore on pace for 25 red-zone targets this season, which would shatter his career-high of 13 targets and a 23% red-zone target rate in a season.
The potential wrench to watch out for is Allen’s usage. In a small sample, the veteran has been targeted on 29.2% of his routes, far higher than Moore (who has the second-highest target rate on the team). If he had enough snaps to qualify, Allen’s target rate would rank seventh-highest among wide receivers this year.
The long-term upside option is Odunze, but his 14.9% target rate just isn’t palatable for a fantasy starter, as that ranks 78th among wide receivers this season.
The encouraging news for Odunze is that his 16.2 aDOT dwarfs that of Moore (9.2) or Allen (8.0) this season, giving him a far higher yardage upside if he can see an uptick in target rate. Caleb Williams missed Odunze on a potential deep post TD last week versus the Los Angeles Rams, but the rookies seem to be improving on a weekly basis.
Small detail, but worth pointing out:
I continue to feel like Rome Odunze's feel for timing with Caleb Williams is right up there with Keenan Allen's as the best on the team.
Good job by Caleb to climb the pocket and hit Odunze for a 10-yard gain on what could have been a… pic.twitter.com/inYrr6u4Nj
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
Ultimately, this week’s matchup against the Carolina Panthers makes Moore and Allen startable options in PPR leagues, with the former having WR2 upside and the latter being more of a Flex option.
Carolina ranks 20th in fantasy PPG allowed to wide receivers (23.0). Although no receiver has reached 100 yards against the Panthers yet, they’ve allowed six TDs to wide receivers, tied for the fourth-most. With Williams coming off his first positive EPA game of the season, signs of life in the Bears’ passing game provide hope for the fantasy managers of their wideouts.
