It hasn’t always been pretty, but no team wins more than the Kansas City Chiefs. After clinching their ninth straight division title, the Chiefs’ last box to tick off in the regular season involves clinching the No. 1 seed for the fourth time in the last seven seasons.
Using the PFN Playoff Predictor, what are the Chiefs’ chances of earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC after their Week 15 victory over the Cleveland Browns?
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances | Week 15 Update
AFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race
- Chiefs defeated Browns, 21-7
- Bengals defeated Titans, 37-27
- Texans defeated Dolphins, 20-12
- Ravens defeated Giants, 35-14
- Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
- Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
- Broncos defeated Colts, 31-13
- Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
With the Chiefs’ victory over the Browns, the Ravens and Texans are no longer in contention for the AFC’s top seed.
In Sunday’s late window, the Bills’ win kept them within two games of the Chiefs in the race for the AFC’s top seed. According to the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, the Chiefs currently have a 78% chance of earning that number one seed.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, where you can choose who will win the remaining NFL games to see how each game can impact the NFL playoff picture.
How Can the Chiefs Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Chiefs lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Buffalo Bills as a result of their only loss this season. However, that might not prevent Kansas City from hosting a potential playoff rematch at Arrowhead Stadium.
Entering Week 15, PFN’s Playoff Predictor gave the Chiefs an 78.3% chance of earning the top seed. The Bills are next at 18.7%. The 13-1 Chiefs will clinch the top seed with at least two wins in their final three games against the Texans, Steelers, and Broncos. Even then, that assumes the Bills will finish 3-0 with games remaining against the Patriots, Jets, and Patriots.
Kansas City has the 10th-hardest remaining strength of schedule. With 10 of their 13 wins coming by a single score, opponent strength has almost been irrelevant, since the Chiefs seem to play every team tight regardless of their capability.
The Cleveland Browns, their Week 15 opponent, was the only sub-.500 team the Chiefs have on their schedule the rest of the way. The last three games are all against playoff teams, though Kansas City will likely be narrow favorites over Houston, Pittsburgh, and Denver.
For a more in-depth look at the race for the top spot in the AFC, check out our AFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Scenarios in Week 15.
What Were the Chiefs Storylines Entering Week 15?
Preview courtesy PFN’s Jason Katz
Is Patrick Mahomes Seriously an MVP Candidate?
Up until the past week or two, Patrick Mahomes’ MVP odds had consistently been in the top five, not too far behind the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and, more recently, Saquon Barkley. Despite the Chiefs being 12-1 with the best record in football and the last seven MVPs coming from No. 1 seeds, and Mahomes widely considered the best quarterback in football, the Chiefs’ QB has fallen out of the MVP race.
The last 11 MVP winners have all been quarterbacks, with the last non-QB being Adrian Peterson in 2012. Mahomes is on pace to have fewer total touchdowns than every name on this list, a whopping 15 below the average. His combined passing and rushing yards are nearly 300 below the average, and his turnovers are running four above the average.
And bear in mind, prior to 2021, all of these stats were accumulated in a 16-game season, with some of these quarterbacks only playing 15 games after sitting out a meaningless regular-season finale.
Mahomes may have the Chiefs poised as Super Bowl favorites once again, but statistically, he is not a serious MVP candidate.
Are the Chiefs Lucky or Good? Yes
You’ve heard the adage that it’s better to be lucky than good. In the case of the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs, it’s best when a team is lucky and good.
The Chiefs are now 10-0 in games decided by one score or less (defined as +/- 8 points). Typically, results in one-score games are a product of variance and inconsistent from year to year. But is it really blind luck that the Chiefs are this good in one-score games? History says maybe not.
The greatest quarterbacks of all time have consistently overperformed in one-score games. Here are the career records of three all-time greats in one-score games (data dates back to 2000 and includes the postseason).
• Patrick Mahomes: 53-21 (.716)
• Tom Brady: 113-54 (.676)
• Peyton Manning: 81-40 (.669)
There’s a reason Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 with a two-point lead and 2:27 on the clock. It’s not that he thinks the Chiefs are lucky. It’s that he knows what might happen if he kicks a field goal and gives the ball back to Mahomes down five points with about two minutes on the clock.
