The Kansas City Chiefs have completed their transformation into the current era’s version of the New England Patriots. Even though they don’t look like the best team in the NFL, they still find ways to win every game.
The Chiefs escaped with a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. Thanks to their win in Week 13, Kansas City officially clinched a playoff berth.
But what are Kansas City’s chances of winning the AFC West or the Super Bowl? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play in Week 13.
Can the Chiefs Secure the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Following their victory in Week 13, the Chiefs are 11-1 and have officially clinched a playoff berth.
They have a 60.6% chance for the first seed, a 23.7% chance for the second seed, a 4.6% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a 9.0% chance for the fifth seed, a 1.6% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.3% chance for the seventh seed.
Will the Chiefs Win the AFC West?
Here’s what the AFC West race looks like heading into Week 14:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have an 89.0% chance to win the AFC.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a 7.7% chance to win the AFC.
- The Denver Broncos have a 3.3% chance to win the AFC.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have a 0.0% chance to win the AFC.
Current AFC West Standings
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
- Denver Broncos (8-5)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
AFC Playoff Race After Week 14
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
9. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. Cleveland Browns (3-10)
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
13. New York Jets (3-10)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-10)
15. New England Patriots (3-10)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
Chiefs’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 13
Can the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Kansas City has a 5.2% chance to win it all.
Chiefs’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 15: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 16: vs. Houston Texans
- Week 17: at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 18: at Denver Broncos
What PFN Predicted for the Raiders at Chiefs Matchup
Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce summarized this matchup nicely when he called it “the best team in football vs. the worst team in football.” While we can quibble with which team actually belongs at each of those extremes, the reality is that Black Friday’s matchup is the most lopsided of Week 13.
The Raiders will be bringing Aidan O’Connell back after a five-week absence with a broken thumb out of necessity. With Gardner Minshew (broken collarbone) out for the season and Desmond Ridder just arriving a month ago, O’Connell won’t get the ramp-up time that most players get when returning from a long absence.
That should make this a get-right game for the Chiefs’ defense, which has struggled in recent weeks. Kansas City has had four straight games with a negative EPA per play on defense (meaning they performed at a below-average level). That’s tied for the Chiefs’ second-longest streak since Steve Spagnuolo became their defensive coordinator in 2019.
On the other side, Patrick Mahomes and the offense were able to exploit a leaky Carolina Panthers defense last week and should fare well against a similarly forgiving Raiders unit. Las Vegas allows opponents to score on 48% of their drives, the third-highest rate behind only the Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars. In their first matchup back in Week 8, Mahomes averaged a season-high 0.36 EPA per dropback.
The Chiefs have cut things close against inferior competition this season, with eight of their 10 wins coming by one score. But even if Friday is another slightly uncomfortable experience at times, it would be shocking to see Las Vegas execute at a high enough level to keep this close the entire game.
PFN Prediction: Chiefs 27, Raiders 14