Last season was a rough one for Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. He missed half the year with a hamstring strain, and once he returned, was without Kirk Cousins. Now, Jefferson will have to navigate his first full season without Cousins as his quarterback. Is Jefferson still worth a first-round pick in fantasy football drafts?
Justin Jefferson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
In what was technically a lost 2023 season for Jefferson due to missing seven games with a hamstring strain, the stud WR still somehow managed to reach 1,000 receiving yards. That speaks to just how talented Jefferson is.
While being limited to 10 games was less than ideal for fantasy managers, Jefferson still managed to average 20.2 fantasy points per game in those 10 contests.
It would be easy to say we’ve likely seen Jefferson’s best season. Very few wide receivers are capable of averaging 21.7 points per game like he did in 2022. There are also very few receivers in the NFL at any given moment as gifted as Jefferson. I truly believe we’re getting a legendary season from him at some point in the next 3-5 years.
Despite playing only five games with Cousins, Jefferson still finished fourth in the league with 2.95 yards per route run and was sixth with 10.7 yards per target.
The fact that he was able to post games of 26.1 and 36.0 fantasy points in Weeks 16 and 18, respectively, with QB Nick Mullens under center is all you need to know about Jefferson.
If Cousins were still around, Jefferson would likely be the No. 1 overall pick. His ADP is still WR3, No. 6 overall. That may not seem like much of a discount, but 3-4 spots in the first round is tantamount to multiple rounds later in the draft. It’s a meaningful drop.
The concern is Jefferson’s ceiling is capped by his quarterback. For better or worse, it’s going to be Sam Darnold this season, now that JJ McCarthy is done for the year due to a torn meniscus.
Relying on a journeyman is not the best situation for Jefferson, and we know situation matters.
We saw how going from Derek Carr to Aidan O’Connell torpedoed Davante Adams’ fantasy value. It would be both foolish and unrealistic to assume any wide receiver, even Jefferson, is capable of producing the same numbers with any old QB.
Fantasy managers should not blanket fade Jefferson because of his quarterback situation. However, the guys receiving passes from the likes of Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Joe Burrow are worthy of getting pushed ahead of Jefferson.
With that said, the three guys going ahead of Jefferson have just as high of a ceiling but are safer picks because of their quarterbacks. Jefferson is my WR5, and I would gladly take him in that spot. Yet, I would not take him before CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Analysis for Justin Jefferson
Jefferson is still an elite talent at the WR position, and you won’t hear much of an argument from me if you believe he is the best wideout in the game. However, the situation under center compared to those of other elite first-round receivers carries some uncertainty regarding his 2024 projection.
Jefferson’s ADP is at No. 6 overall, going off the board in the first round as the WR3, which is more than appropriate given his outstanding production every year.
Could an argument be made for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase to be selected ahead of Jefferson strictly based on their quarterback situation? Yes, but I’m not ready to fade Jefferson too far down the board.
Ultimately, Jefferson still projects as a rock-solid WR1 for your fantasy team. I would simply argue his fantasy ceiling is a bit more in question with the uncertainty of whether Darnold can run the passing offense at its highest possible level.