After showcasing league-winning potential over his first seasons under center for the Los Angeles Chargers to start his NFL career, Justin Herbert has finished outside of the top 10 at the QB position over his last two seasons.
Further complicating his fantasy outlook in 2024 were losses of multiple productive pass-catchers from this offense with Jim Harbaugh taking over as head coach.
Does Herbert still have elite fantasy upside heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select Justin Herbert at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 113th Overall (QB16)
- Track Record of Success: Herbert’s worst season to date still saw him throw for 3,134 yards and 20 touchdowns in just 13 games. His first few years in the NFL established him as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league.
- Concerns in 2024: Herbert’s fantasy outlook has taken a hit due to several key factors: the departure of top pass-catchers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett), a shift to a run-heavy scheme under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, and an unproven group of receivers.
- Massive Production Loss: The Chargers lost 229 receptions and 2,339 receiving yards with the departure of key players. The team is relying on younger, less proven players like Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Hayden Hurst, and Joshua Palmer to step up and fill the void.
- Herbert’s Talent: Despite these concerns, Herbert remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. His ability to adapt and excel in difficult situations, paired with a head coach with a track record of success, keeps him in the fantasy QB1 conversation.
- Injury Concerns: Herbert’s foot injury during training camp is worth noting, but it doesn’t necessarily preclude him from hitting 4,300 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2024, given his elite talent.
- ADP Analysis: Herbert’s current ADP of QB16 in the 10th round reflects the uncertainty surrounding his situation. He’s being drafted after quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, and rookie Caleb Williams, which represents a significant fall from his previous standing.
- Final Verdict: While Herbert’s talent and upside remain, the depth at the quarterback position this year makes it difficult to justify taking him in the 10th round when solid Flex options are still available. If you’re looking for value, waiting a couple of rounds and targeting other quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels, Matthew Stafford, or Kirk Cousins might be the better play.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Justin Herbert
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Herbert is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus QB rankings instead.
12) Kirk Cousins, QB | Atlanta Falcons
13) Jayden Daniels, QB | Washington Commanders
14) Caleb Williams, QB | Chicago Bears
15) Jared Goff, QB | Detroit Lions
16) Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Miami Dolphins
17) Justin Herbert, QB | Los Angeles Chargers
18) Trevor Lawrence, QB | Jacksonville Jaguars
19) Aaron Rodgers, QB | New York Jets
20) Matthew Stafford, QB | Los Angeles Rams
21) Deshaun Watson, QB | Cleveland Browns
22) Baker Mayfield, QB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Justin Herbert’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
When throwing for 3,134 yards and 20 TDs over 13 games is the worst season of your young NFL career, you quickly realize how great Herbert has been since he joined the Chargers back in 2020.
There are quite a few reasons some see Herbert’s fantasy value going in the wrong direction after a disappointing fantasy season in 2023, such as the losses of multiple productive pass-catchers — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett — a change to a run-heavy offensive coordinator in Greg Roman, and a group of young and unproven receivers projected for a large role in this offense.
Think about it for a second. The Chargers purged 229 receptions and 2,339 receiving yards worth of production off the roster this offseason and are hoping players like Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Hayden Hurst, and Joshua Palmer will be enough to fill the void to keep Herbert in the fantasy QB1 discussion this year. Quite frankly, it’s very reasonable for fantasy managers to be a bit concerned about his ceiling in 2024.
MORE: Try PFN’s “Who Should I Draft?” Tool
Yet, I am a firm believer in Herbert being one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Great players tend to figure things out. It doesn’t hurt that his new head coach has an excellent track record of success everywhere he goes.
Sure, you have a right to have your doubts or concerns about Herbert not being a top-five fantasy quarterback this season, especially after picking up a foot injury during training camp. Yet, I can’t bring myself to say 4,300 yards and 30 touchdown passes aren’t within his range of outcomes this year. He is that special.
PFN’s Dallas Robinson recently ranked Herbert as the 51st best player in the NFL Top 100 saying: “Herbert hasn’t achieved the same level of team success as other quarterbacks on this list, but he’s been a high-end passer in his own right despite the Los Angeles Chargers failing to optimize his offensive environment.”
Is Herbert a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
All of the changes to the Chargers coaching staff and offense side of the roster have certainly had a big impact on Herbert’s ADP from just a year ago. He is currently going at No. 113 overall as the QB16 off the board in the 10th round. For some additional context, he is being selected after Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, and rookie Caleb Williams.
That is a pretty far fall from grace for a player entering his fifth year in the NFL with a nice track record of production on the football field.
Yet, concerns about Herbert’s collection of pass-catching options and a shift in offensive philosophy to a more run-first team are legitimate when trying to sort through his fantasy upside in 2024.
There is no denying the talent has always been there for Herbert, and he still possesses great fantasy upside even in a less-than-ideal situation entering this season. The real problem with this ADP is the current depth of the quarterback position as a whole.
The eighth round still has players like Zack Moss, Jaylen Warren, and Raheem Mostert available.
Personally, I’d rather wait another couple and live with Jayden Daniels, Matthew Stafford, or Kirk Cousins to roll with as my quarterback and potentially stream the position than select Herbert in the eighth round when Flex options with nice upside are still available.