As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of quarterback Justin Herbert.
Justin Herbert’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
It’s crazy to think Herbert wasn’t considered good enough to start Week 1 of his rookie year. It took a fluke doctor mishap with Tyrod Taylor for Herbert to get on the field. Once he did, he exceeded all expectations.
As a rookie, Herbert averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB7. Fantasy managers immediately bought in, making him a top-five selection in 2021. He rewarded them with 23.3 ppg, finishing as the overall QB2. Surely, Herbert would continue his dominance in his third NFL season.
Obviously, that didn’t happen. Herbert took a major step backward in 2022. After throwing 31 and 38 touchdowns, respectively, in each of his first two seasons, Herbert threw a mere 25 last season. He averaged 17.1 ppg, finishing as the overall QB15.
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The strange part about Herbert’s 2022 is he really didn’t play poorly. Certainly not so poor that he would finish outside the top 12 of quarterbacks.
Herbert completed a career-best 68.2% of his throws, and his 1.4% interception rate was the lowest of his career. He averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game and led all quarterbacks in pressured completion percentage.
One of the main problems for Herbert was his average depth of target. It dropped from 7.8 in 2021 to 6.5 in 2022. That helped contribute to his passing yards per game dropping from 295 to 279. But really, the main issue was just touchdowns.
Despite making the playoffs for the first time in his three professional seasons, the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense regressed massively in 2022, scoring just 41 offensive touchdowns compared to 56 in 2021.
Justin Herbert’s Fantasy Ranking
Herbert has just one year left in his rookie contract, but two things are going to happen. First, the Chargers are going to exercise his fifth-year option. Second, they’re going to try and work out a long-term extension. The fifth-year option is merely a fallback plan in case they can’t reach a deal before the upcoming season and guarantees that Los Angeles won’t lose him.
Herbert is just 25 years old and really didn’t play anywhere near as badly as his fantasy numbers suggest. The addition of Kellen Moore as LA’s offensive coordinator is only going to help the situation.
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If there’s a fantasy manager out there who doesn’t realize this, I would be looking to acquire Herbert. It’s far more likely he returns to the ranks of the high-end QB1s than he posts another QB2 season.
We currently have Herbert at QB5 (No. 8 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. The more I think about it, the more “in” I am on Herbert for 2023 and beyond. I would be thrilled to have him as my first pick in dynasty startup drafts.