Los Angeles Chargers running back Joshua Kelley battled his way into the RB2 spot behind Austin Ekeler last season. Will he still have that role this season? If he does, will he be worth rostering in fantasy leagues? What is Kelley’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Joshua Kelley’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Ever since Melvin Gordon left, establishing Ekeler as the clear RB1, the Chargers have been in search of a true RB2. From 2020-2022, the Chargers spent a Day 3 pick on a running back, hoping to find a guy to take some of the load off of Ekeler.
Kelley was the first one to get a shot as a 2020 fourth-rounder. As a rookie, he touched the ball 134 times for a total of 502 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers remain career-highs.
The Chargers drafted Larry Rountree III in the sixth round in 2021 and Isaiah Spiller in the fourth round in 2022. After experimenting with each of them, as well as mixing in a Sony Michel signing, the Chargers turned back to Kelley toward the second half of last season.
In his third NFL campaign, Kelley looked noticeably improved. His 4.2 yards per carry were a career-high, and he showed some juice with 2.57 yards created per touch.
Week 13 is when the Chargers recommitted to Kelley as their RB2. From that point forward, he averaged just under a 40% snap share. He carried the ball 7.3 times per game for 29.8 yards.
Obviously, these are nowhere near fantasy-relevant numbers. But they do establish Kelley as the favorite to be the RB2 behind Ekeler. With the Chargers not drafting or signing a single running back, their RB depth chart is exactly the same now as it was last season.
Should You Draft Joshua Kelley This Year?
Once you get toward the final rounds of fantasy drafts, you’re not finding anyone with clear standalone value. For running backs, you just want guys with plausible upside. Kelley appears to be the primary handcuff for Ekeler.
With that said, we are historically not particularly good at both predicting who the handcuff is and the percentage of the starter’s production he can provide. If Ekeler were to get hurt, Kelley would certainly not be a three-down back. He would share the work with someone — likely a guy not currently on the team. At best, Kelley could hope to provide 50-60% of Ekeler’s value.
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Is that worth taking a shot on late in fantasy drafts? Not for me.
Kelley has an RB76 ADP, No. 265 overall. I have him at RB56, which is pretty far ahead of consensus. Kelley is largely going undrafted in standard-sized 12-team leagues.
If Ekeler were to miss time, Kelley would undoubtedly be worth picking up. I’m fine with making him the last running back I draft on the back of my bench.
