The NFL never sleeps. Even after the games are over, fantasy football values are still shifting. Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs had a surprisingly strong rookie season. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Josh Downs’ Dynasty Outlook
From a purely fantasy perspective, Downs didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie. He only averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game, finishing outside the top 48 wide receivers.
MINSHEW MAGIC 🪄
He finds rookie Josh Downs on a strike on a free play to even things up in Indy!#ForTheShoe
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 22, 2023
Downs had a strong six-game stretch from Weeks 3-8, where he scored between 13.1 and 15.7 fantasy points in four of those contests, with the other two being a dud at 5.4 and a smash at 23.5. Outside of that period of time, Downs didn’t have a single notable fantasy outing the rest of the season.
While Downs was obviously not the fantasy force that guys like Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua, Houston Texans WR Tank Dell, and Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison were, his performance kind of gets lost in the shuffle of what was a really strong rookie class.
Downs commanded a respectable 17.9% target share as a rookie, catching 68 passes for 771 yards and two touchdowns.
The threshold for rookie wide receivers that I like to see is roughly 500 receiving yards. Downs sailed past that number to the extent that his production suggests he will go on to be a quality fantasy asset for much of his career. Yet, it feels as if his fantasy value is lower now than it was a year ago.
Downs’ ceiling is definitely not as high as some of his fellow rookies. I don’t see a fantasy WR1 in his future. He profiles too much as a quintessential slot receiver with a low aDOT (average depth of target).
As a rookie, Downs ran 74.7% of his routes from the slot, and his 7.2 aDOT was 90th in the league. He’s going to be the type of receiver that has a solid weekly floor based on volume.
MORE: FREE Fantasy Football Dynasty Trade Analyzer
Not every receiver needs to have a Justin Jefferson-type ceiling, though. There’s nothing wrong with Downs becoming an annual WR3 with WR2 upside.
With a little bit of natural progression as he improves and a full season of Anthony Richardson at QB, Downs could be one of those under-appreciated reliable fantasy assets for the better part of the next decade.
Jason Katz’s Top 40 Dynasty WR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF
25) Jayden Reed | GB
26) Amari Cooper | CLE
27) Mike Evans | TB
28) Davante Adams | LV
29) Christian Kirk | JAX
30) Cooper Kupp | LAR
31) George Pickens | PIT
32) Diontae Johnson | PIT
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) Chris Godwin | TB
35) Keenan Allen | LAC
36) Calvin Ridley | JAX
37) Stefon Diggs | BUF
38) Josh Downs | IND
39) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
40) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
Should You Trade Downs in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Downs? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
If you drafted Downs in your 2023 dynasty rookie draft, the best course of action is likely to hold. You can add Downs to a larger deal if his addition will net you a positive return, but there’s no reason to go out of your way to try and move off of him.
Downs’ rookie year suggests a bright future, but I’m not sure any prospective trade partners will pay that type of value.
Always be open to moving any player if the deal is right. But I view Downs as a player likely to increase his dynasty value in 2024 by taking a sizable leap forward as a sophomore. You want to trade assets likely to decline in value. That’s not Downs.
Downs largely competed with Alec Pierce for the Colts’ WR2 role. I expect him to fully take that over in 2024. Plus, there’s the potential for Michael Pittman Jr. to leave in free agency. Depending on what the Colts do at the position, Downs could be in line to lead this team in targets. At just 23 years old this season, fantasy managers should hang onto him.
Read More 2024 Dynasty Profiles
Using the table below, browse our 2024 dynasty profiles for more than 170 players so you can dominate your dynasty drafts!
You can sort by player, team, or position. For mobile users, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.