It may not feel like it because he wasn’t a major fantasy football contributor, but Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison had an excellent rookie season that bodes extremely well for his long-term prospects. While Addison is clearly talented, his offensive situation got worse this offseason. How does this all impact his projection?
Jordan Addison’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 9.8
- Receptions: 53
- Receiving Yards: 686
- Receiving TDs: 7.5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Addison This Year?
I really want to like Addison. Historically, sophomore wide receivers have been great bets for fantasy. They’re even stronger bets when they’re able to reach 900 receiving yards as rookies, and Addison finished his with 911.
Addison’s critics will say his fantasy value was bolstered by an unsustainable TD rate. It’s true that he should not have had 10 touchdowns based on his usage. After all, he only commanded an 18.1% target share.
The reality is Addison’s season probably should’ve been even better. He really suffered once Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. The Vikings’ QB room of misfit toys comprised of Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall hurt Addison far more than his being elevated to WR1 with Justin Jefferson out helped him.
Addison with Jefferson and Cousins > Addison with no Jefferson but also no Cousins.
In eight games with Cousins, Addison averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. For context, 16.0 points per game is roughly the threshold for WR1 production. In nine games with quarterbacks not named Kirk Cousins, Addison averaged 10.5 fantasy ppg, making him mostly unstartable.
It’s easy to project Addison for an increase in volume this season. I have his target share at 20%, a modest improvement from last year. In reality, it may be even higher.
Unfortunately, my projections agree with PFN’s consensus in predicting a decrease in Addison’s fantasy points per game. I have him at 11.05 ppg, which projects him out to the WR45.
It’s really disappointing to see Addison project so poorly. As much as I want to rank him higher, I was only able to get him to WR46.
Talent matters. But so does situation. Addison has talent, but there’s no denying the significant drop-off in situation.
Sam Darnold was always going to open the season as the starter, but now he won’t be looking over his shoulder as JJ McCarthy is done for the season.
Of course, there’s always the chance we’re wrong. That’s where upside comes into play.
Fantasy football is a game of probabilities. The most likely scenario is Addison operating as the WR2 behind the best WR in football playing alongside a journeyman QB. That is not going to be advantageous to his fantasy value.
There’s also the matter of Addison’s pending criminal trial. While I don’t expect it to be concluded by the end of the season, there is always a chance it does, which would likely result in a late-season suspension. I wouldn’t factor it in too much, but it’s still something we’d rather Addison be without.
Given Addison’s impressive rookie season and talent profile, I would stop short of calling him someone to blanket fade. However, the excitement surrounding him is minimal due to the quarterback situation. Feel free to take a chance on Addison if he falls below ADP, but don’t go out of your way to draft him.
