Jordan Addison’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison flashed some serious upside as a rookie. With another year of experience, Addison should be even better at football this year. But will his situation allow him to excel in fantasy football? How should dynasty managers proceed?

Jordan Addison’s Dynasty Outlook

Last year, I was pretty high on Addison from a redraft perspective. He wasn’t quite the league-winner that Puka Nacua was, nor did he produce at the level of Tank Dell before he got hurt, but Addison proved he belonged. There were several hiccups along the way, but fantasy managers have to be encouraged by what they saw.

Just a few short years ago, Addison would’ve been dismissed as too small to be anything but a rotational depth piece in the NFL. Now, several receivers look like him, and they’re not just slot guys.

At 5’11”, 173 pounds, Addison is, in fact, small. He’s also not particularly fast or overly athletic. But he did break out at a young age in college and was absurdly dominant in his sophomore season at Pitt, catching 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns in 14 games.

From a prospect-profile standpoint, Addison came out of college early and earned first-round draft capital. We just needed his rookie season to be good enough to indicate future success. That required Addison to reach at least 500 receiving yards. He did so with ease.

While it’s great when rookie receivers reach 500 yards, it’s even better when they far exceed that number. Unsurprisingly, the more yards a receiver amasses as a rookie, the higher his upside is.

Addison caught 70 passes for 911 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns. He did this despite just an 18.1% target share while playing behind K.J. Osborn for the first half of the season, plus losing Kirk Cousins midway through the season.

Addison faced multiple impediments to his success as a rookie. Yet, he managed to come through looking mighty strong.

Since 2011, there have been 26 receivers who recorded 900+ yards as a rookie. Since three of them were from the 2023 class, that gives us a sample size of 23 receivers we’ve seen play beyond their rookie year.

Of those 23 players, I would classify three of them as busts. That means 87% of them panned out. Of those remaining 20, more than half were or are viewed as clear WR1s in fantasy — leaving Addison in some fantastic company.

What encourages me most about Addison is the Vikings did not pigeonhole him into the traditional “undersized receiver plays the slot and sees short targets” role. He only ran 23.2% of his routes out of the slot. Not only did Addison primarily play outside, he was successful in doing so.

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Addison also saw a 12.5 aDOT (average depth of target), 29th in the league. He was being used downfield, resulting in several long touchdowns, which bodes extremely well for his upside going forward.

One point of contention in assessing Addison’s fantasy performance is he benefited from Justin Jefferson getting hurt. Jefferson’s injury propelled Addison into the Vikings’ WR1 role for much of the season.

While Addison certainly should be expected to produce at a higher level without Jefferson than with him, he actually performed worse than he should’ve due to Cousins tearing his Achilles. Addison with Jefferson and Cousins is a far superior fantasy asset than Addison without Jefferson but also without his quarterback.

In eight games with Cousins, Addison averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. For context, 16.0 points per game (ppg) is roughly the threshold for WR1 production.

In nine games with quarterbacks not named Cousins, notably Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall, Addison averaged 10.5 fantasy ppg, making him mostly unstartable.

I’m sure you can see where this is headed. In 2024, there will be no Cousins. The former Minnesota and Washington quarterback signed a four-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons. Barring an unexpected trade, the Vikings will either start Sam Darnold or a rookie.

Addison’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Addison sit in the dynasty WR landscape heading into the next part of the 2024 offseason? Here are our consensus WR rankings from 1 to 30, demonstrating where Addison lands in comparison to other top names at the position in half-PPR scoring.

1) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
2) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
3) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
4) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
6) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
7) Garrett Wilson, WR | New York Jets
8) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
9) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | Free Agent
10) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
11) Drake London, WR | Atlanta Falcons
12) Chris Olave, WR | New Orleans Saints
13) Brandon Aiyuk, WR | San Francisco 49ers
14) Malik Nabers, WR | Free Agent
15) Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Indianapolis Colts
16) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
17) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
18) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
19) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
20) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
21) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
22) Rome Odunze, WR | Free Agent
23) Amari Cooper, WR | Cleveland Browns
24) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
25) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
26) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Free Agent
27) Mike Evans, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
29) Jayden Reed, WR | Green Bay Packers
30) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders

Should You Trade Addison in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Addison? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!

In dynasty, we want to focus more on talent than on situation. At 22 years old, Addison is the exact type of receiver you want, but there are concerns.

First, Addison is not like other young receivers as there is quite literally a 0% chance he ever becomes his team’s WR1.

Addison profiles more as an NFL WR2, anyway. But regardless of how good he comes, he’s never overtaking Jefferson. So, unless one of Addison or Jefferson leaves Minnesota, there’s an inherent cap on the former’s ceiling.

Since 2017, 86.7% of WR1s in fantasy were their NFL team’s WR1. Addison is going to produce for fantasy managers for a long time, but he’s likely more a WR2 than a WR1.

With that said, I implore fantasy managers not to mistake the above for thinking I’m down on Addison. On quite the contrary, we just need to acknowledge his full fantasy profile.

In addition to the Jefferson problem, Addison also has an unknown at quarterback. Given Addison’s age, there’s plenty of time for things to work themselves out. But if it’s Darnold, that will cost him the 2024 season. And then who knows if the Vikings can find a franchise quarterback capable of supporting two fantasy-relevant receivers plus T.J. Hockenson.

We already know that poor quarterback play is going to be more of a problem for Addison than Jefferson. Cousins could’ve supported an elite WR1 in Jefferson and a mid-WR2 in Addison. Can Darnold? Could J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix Jr.?

I completely understand if there are fantasy managers out there who want to cash out on Addison now. It’s a risky move. But if Addison struggles for the next year or two due to poor quarterback play, he will be cheaper to buy back in 2025 or 2026.

KEEP READING: 2024 Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings

Addison’s rookie year was great, but 13.0 fantasy points per game isn’t amazing. I’m not sure progression will be baked into his asking price anymore.

Ultimately, I would view Addison as a guy capable of averaging at least 15.0 ppg. If it’s a rookie who winds up hindering Addison’s breakout, they’ll only be a rookie for one year. By 2025, we could be talking about Addison as a clear top-15 receiver. There’s plenty of time for things to work themselves out. Buy the talent.