Jonathon Brooks’ Fantasy Profile: Buy the Injury Discount On the Panthers Rookie RB

The Carolina Panthers selected Jonathon Brooks as the first running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. Expectations aren’t super high, but they’re higher than those of any other rookie RB. With uncertainty surrounding the caliber of this offense and Brooks’ health as he recovers from a torn ACL, how should fantasy football managers proceed?

Update: Brooks will start the season on the Non-Football Injury list and will not be able to play until at least Week 5.

Should You Select Jonathon Brooks at His Current ADP?

PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 80th Overall (RB27)

• Impressive College Career: Despite a slow start at Texas, Brooks excelled in his junior year once given the opportunity, rushing for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Panthers made him the RB1 of the 2024 class despite his ongoing ACL recovery.
• Injury Concerns: Brooks is still recovering from a torn ACL and won’t be ready for Week 1. There’s uncertainty about when he’ll be back on the field, with estimates ranging from Week 3 to Week 6.
• Uncertain Role: Last season, Chuba Hubbard was effective as the Panthers’ lead back. While Brooks is expected to take over eventually, Hubbard could have a larger role early in the season, making Brooks a risky pick early on.
• ADP Analysis: Brooks carries an RB27 ADP, No. 80 overall. While this is reasonable, it’s challenging to draft him as your RB2 given the uncertainty of his early-season availability.
• Final Verdict: Brooks has the potential to be a valuable asset in the second half of the season, which is often more important for fantasy success. At the right price, he’s worth drafting, especially if you can weather his early absence.

PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jonathon Brooks

Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. 

67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
72) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
73) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
74) Kyler Murray, QB | Arizona Cardinals
75) Brian Robinson Jr., RB | Washington Commanders
76) Tyjae Spears, RB | Tennessee Titans
77) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers

Brooks’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season

It’s easy to look at Brooks’ first two years at Texas and scoff at his lack of production. Well, that’s what happens when you play behind Bijan Robinson.

When Brooks got his chance as the lead back in his junior year, he excelled, rushing for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns on 187 carries. Brooks was so good that the Panthers didn’t hesitate to make him the RB1 of this year’s class despite his ongoing ACL recovery.

It’s entirely possible that Brooks would have gone in the back end of Round 1 had he not gotten hurt. I don’t think anyone doubts his talent, but there are some concerns regarding Brooks’ rookie-year production.

While he’s clearly talented when healthy, we already know Brooks won’t be ready for Week 1. Even if he avoids the PUP list, the earliest we will see him is Week 3 or 4. There’s still a chance he’s sidelined until Week 5 or 6.

Last season, Chuba Hubbard was quite effective as the Panthers’ lead back. Brooks is the superior player, but Hubbard could open the season with a larger role than Brooks’ managers would like.

Another issue is the Panthers’ offense as a whole. This is a team that scored all of 20 touchdowns last season, an unfathomably low number. And just seven of them came on the ground.

Brooks will definitely help, and this offense can’t possibly be worse. However, Bryce Young will need to make significant strides to provide Brooks with a platform to reach his potential.

Most importantly, though, is volume. The single most predictive statistic in determining running back fantasy value is how much a player touches the ball. Unfortunately, the nature of Brooks’ injury recovery makes this difficult to predict. However, it’s likely he’ll be in a feature role by the second half of the season — when it matters most.

Is Brooks a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?

Brooks currently carries an RB27 ADP, No. 80 overall, but that may not accurately capture the impact of the recent news that he won’t be ready for Week 1. He coudl be even cheaper.

Even if the Panthers’ offense struggles once again, he has the ability to outperform his cost in fantasy drafts.

I have Brooks as my RB29. I want to rank him even higher, but early-season production does matter, and it’s difficult to draft a running back to be your RB2 who may not play for a month, and won’t be startable until one-third of the way through the season.

With that said, I don’t think fantasy managers do enough drafting with the playoffs in mind. The second half of the season is more important than the first. We have reason to believe the Panthers will be better, and they didn’t draft Brooks because they want to continue featuring Hubbard. The rookie should get the job sooner rather than later.

Historically, rookie running backs are good investments. I’m more bullish on Brooks than not. Don’t necessarily go out of your way to draft him, but at the right price, Brooks is certainly worth being your fantasy team’s RB2.