Joe Mixon Dynasty Profile: Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

What is Joe Mixon's dynasty value heading into the 2023 offseason, with uncertainty swirling in terms of his future?

As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of RB Joe Mixon.

Joe Mixon’s Dynasty Outlook and Value

Despite playing in two fewer games in 2022, Joe Mixon saw 82 fewer carries than last season, rushing 210 times for 814 yards with seven touchdowns. The majority of Mixon’s metrics were not trending in the right direction. He was 61st in true yards per carry, 25th in EPA per rush, 30th in rushes of 10 or more yards (16), and 42nd in breakaway percentage at 19.1%. Additionally, Mixon averaged a missed tackle on just 10.9% of his carries.

After a 2021 season with nearly 300 carries, 1,200 yards, and 13 touchdowns, Mixon was a disappointment in 2022. The only thing that saved him from a fantasy perspective was his receiving volume.

Mixon was seventh in targets amongst running backs with 70 and caught 55 of his targets for 400 yards (sixth) with two touchdowns. Due to this, Mixon finished as the RB12 overall and RB9 in points per game. But as noted above, that masks some of the more significant issues we saw, including Mixon being an RB1 in 43% of his games and rushing for 60 yards or less nine times.

MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Running Back

Mixon is entering his age-27 season and is quickly approaching the age cliff where we start seeing a downturn in a player’s output. It also doesn’t help that Mixon has accrued 1,545 total touches in his six years. That’s a lot of usage. While I wouldn’t bank on this happening, the Bengals could be a sneaky team in the RB market.

Mixon carries a dead cap hit of only $5.5 million compared to his $12.76 million salary in 2023. That moves to $13.1 million in 2024 with just a $2.75 million dead cap hit. While I’m not saying Cincinnati will move off of Mixon, it’s something we should at least consider in the range of outcomes. The recent off-field reports surrounding Mixon certainly stoke the fires of a potential change.

Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Ranking

Mixon is perfect for a championship contender, as he will carry low-end RB1 value and is on one of the highest-powered offenses in the NFL. When you throw in his contract status and age, Mixon carries less value to people who are one or two years out from competing for a championship.

By that time, either the age cliff or the contract will have kicked in, and he won’t be the workhorse-style RB that we’ve seen in previous years.

Mixing currently sits as my RB14 in dynasty before we add any rookies like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. However, both players will be ahead of him once we know where their landing spots are. In startups, Mixon is also the No. 44 overall player in Superflex leagues, as QBs see an increase in value due to positional scarcity.

The range of outcomes concerns me for Mixon a bit compared to his value. I feel there is just as good of a chance of Mixon finishing as a low-end RB1 as he does outside the top 20 in points per game in 2023. He is someone I would try to move during the offseason but only for a premium.

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