Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was a light in the darkness in the team’s 2022 season. Has Jeudy established himself as the team’s WR1, should fantasy managers target him in 2023 drafts, and what is his fantasy football projection?
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Jerry Jeudy’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
If you followed my work last season, you might recall Courtland Sutton was one of “my guys.”. I was team Sutton over Jeudy. It wasn’t close. Yada yada yada. I apologize. I was wrong.
Not only have I changed my tune on Sutton vs. Jeudy, but I’ve completely turned on Jeudy — in a good way. I was never a fan of him as a prospect. After a dismal sophomore season in 2021, it sure looked like my initial take on Jeudy was tracking well. Then, 2022 happened.
While 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game aren’t blowing the doors off anyone, it was Jeudy’s on-field performance that caused me to change my opinion. He is good at football.
Playing on one of the worst offenses in the league with arguably the worst quarterback of the 2022 season, Jeudy was a lone bright spot. The Broncos lost Javonte Williams. Sutton disappointed.
Their head coach turned out to be a hack (pun intended). Russell Wilson had more bathrooms in his house than touchdown passes for almost the entire season. When you put Jeudy’s season into context, it’s actually quite impressive.
Jeudy caught 67 passes for 972 yards and six touchdowns. His 20.8% target share was 2.3% behind Sutton. Yet Jeudy significantly outproduced his counterpart, averaging a full 3.0 ppg more.
A big reason I like comparing Sutton and Jeudy is that they were both victims of the same unfortunate circumstances. Sutton was treated as the WR1, seeing more volume and more opportunities. But Jeudy was just better.
Sutton ran a route on 100% of Denver’s pass plays. That number was just 84.2% for Jeudy. Sutton played 88% of the snaps. Jeudy played just 71%. Sutton had a higher average depth of target, providing him with more opportunities at splash plays. Despite all of this, Jeudy’s efficiency held up reasonably well.
Should You Draft Jerry Jeudy This Year?
Editor’s Note: Jeudy has been carted off from practice with an apparent hamstring injury on August 24th. We’re awaiting further details as to the severity of his injury.
What excites me most about Jeudy this season is I really have a hard time viewing 2022 as anything other than Jeudy’s floor. His situation really couldn’t have been worse.
I don’t believe that Sean Payton is going to magically fix Wilson. After all, Wilson will be 35 years old this season, and no mobile quarterback in NFL history has played effectively beyond age 33/34.
But can Wilson rebound a bit? Absolutely. He was so bad last season that it’s almost impossible for him to be worse. So, if Wilson is at least marginally better than last season, Jeudy should at least be able to replicate last year’s numbers, which were good for a WR19 finish. That’s higher than his current WR24, No. 61 overall ADP.
I’m very bullish on Jeudy this year because there are several different ways he can succeed. If Wilson does bounce back big time, Jeudy has WR1 upside. Wilson could also flame out, get benched for Jarrett Stidham, and I would still like Jeudy’s chances.
There’s also the matter of Jeudy’s 23.5% targets per route run rate. That was 35th in the league last season. There’s plenty of room for growth, which would go well with his already impressive efficiency.
Jeudy averaged 9.7 yards per target last season, ninth in the league. His 2.29 yards per route run was 16th. Imagine what he could do with a better offensive scheme and even slightly improved quarterback play.
Jeudy is currently my WR20, a handful of spots above ADP. He is someone I’m looking to aggressively target in fantasy drafts. Consider him a low WR2, at worst, with high WR2 upside.