For the past three seasons, Jerry Jeudy has flashed some of the big playmaking ability that made him such a highly touted WR prospect coming out of Alabama, but it still feels like he hasn’t quite put it all together in the NFL for an entire season. Will a new head coach be able to unlock Jeudy’s fantasy football ceiling in 2023? Let’s take a closer look.
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Jerry Jeudy’s 2023 Fantasy Outlook
Patience is a tough skill to acquire in the world of fantasy football. Many in the fantasy community have already run out of patience with the annual breakout narrative for Jeudy.
Even after a 67-972-6 receiving line in a career year in 2022, Jeudy still hasn’t registered a top-20 WR season in PPR formats. However, the reason many believe Jeudy could break out in his fourth season is the arrival of new Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton.
Payton has a lengthy track record of producing top fantasy performers at the WR and TE positions. From 2016-2019, WR Michael Thomas finished as a top-10 WR four times. During that span, Thomas produced four straight seasons seeing 120+ targets with 90+ receptions, 1,100+ yards, and 5+ TDs.
Now, Thomas and Jeudy do have different skills, but the target volume is there for a leading man in this offense.
MORE: 2023 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
If you need further proof of volume, Jimmy Graham also saw 120+ targets for a four-year stretch from 2011-2014, which produced four straight TE1 or TE2 overall finishes during that span.
When you realize that Jeudy has a career-high of 113 targets in a season and still managed to finish as the WR22 in PPR formats despite missing two games on the lowest-scoring team in the league, the path to a top 10-15 fantasy season shouldn’t feel too farfetched.
There’s a strong case to be made that Payton could feature Jeudy in this passing attack. Not to mention, Jeudy finished the season strong over the final six weeks, averaging 12.4 fantasy points while posting a 37-523-3 line.
Is Jerry Jeudy a Draft Day Value at His Current ADP?
Currently, Jeudy is coming off the board in the fifth round of fantasy drafts, but that could drastically change after he was carted off the field due to a hamstring injury.
#Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is expected to miss several weeks with a moderate hamstring injury suffered today in practice, per me and @TomPelissero.
That puts Jeudy’s status in question for Week 1. But there’s optimism it’s nothing long term for one of Denver’s top weapons. pic.twitter.com/KNv0QAUDOR
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 24, 2023
The timeline of Jeudy’s return is expected to be a couple of weeks and does put his status for Week 1 in real jeopardy.
Outside of Jeudy’s recent hamstring injury concerns, the Broncos’ offense should be better this season. I find it highly unlikely they will finish dead last in scoring for a second straight season with Payton as the head coach.
If Payton is able to scheme up Jeudy properly while helping Russell Wilson return to his Pro Bowl form, the WR24 draft-day price feels like Jeudy’s floor with room for a lot more production in 2023.