Cleveland Browns WR Jerry Jeudy stands to benefit from a change of scenery this offseason. We know the pedigree was there — he was the second receiver off the board in 2020, ahead of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk in the process.
That’s not to label Jeudy as a bust, it’s to serve as a reminder of what was thought of him not long ago. Is it possible we see that raw talent emerge, along with fantasy football production, now that he’s in a better offensive environment than he was in with the Broncos?
Jerry Jeudy’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
As we enter 2024, Jeudy’s profile has several questions, but that is reflected in his asking price. Just 12 months ago, he was drafted as a top-30 option at the position, and now, despite an overall upgrade in his surroundings, he’s not considered a top-50 receiver in most drafts.
Fun fact:
Jerry Jeudy would've led all Browns receivers in YAC last year. (323)
Cleveland has been searching for a creator after the catch.
They found one in Jeudy. 👀 pic.twitter.com/9aUU7gIfYE
— Nick Karns (@karnsies817) June 10, 2024
My primary question is one of fit. The majority of Jeudy’s routes last season — and over the past three seasons as a whole — have come from the slot. Not only has Elijah Moore spent over 45% of his snaps in the slot over the past two seasons, but David Njoku was also in that role 28.4% of the time in 2023.
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Jeudy could win that role, but there is no denying that there is competition for looks. We aren’t positive about the quality of those targets, either, with Deshaun Watson’s health far from a given.
We’ve also seen Jeudy win downfield; his aDOT (average depth of target) has increased in consecutive seasons, and he’s seen over 32% of his looks from deep in all four of his NFL seasons. But again, that role is filled.
Last season, Amari Cooper was WR4 in terms of PPR fantasy points scored on deep passes per game (ranking behind only Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Mike Evans). And again, we have our concerns about Watson and his ability to both stay on the field and maximize the downfield passes.
- With Houston (2017-20): 109.9 passer rating, 13.9 yards per attempt
- With Cleveland (2022-23): 77.3 passer rating, 10.4 yards per pass attempt
I want to believe in Jeudy’s talent and this change potentially unlocking him, but due to the depth of the position, I’m not landing on him very often.
Curtis Samuel owns a similar 11th-12th round ADP, and he has a much clearer path to targets during his transition from a low-octane offense to one with more potential. He also gets the benefit of joining forces with a play-caller that helped him thrive in 2020 (Joe Brady).
If I’m going to gamble on the upside, I prefer Mike Williams as a cheap bet on Aaron Rodgers or even an explosive player like Jahan Dotson, who is going 2-3 rounds later and has access to unknown levels of upside with Jayden Daniels supporting him.
Jeudy is the type of receiver I’m not drafting but will be tracking. I still think he can play good football, and if his usage trends in a positive direction throughout September, he could be a buy in the trade markets, even if the production has yet to manifest itself.
I’d rather take that cautious approach as the season progresses than add him to the back end of my post-draft roster.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Jerry Jeudy
After finishing as WR22 in 2022, Jeudy regressed in 2023, finishing as WR50 with 54 receptions for 758 yards and two touchdowns. His decline came despite high hopes under new head coach Sean Payton.
Jeudy’s 1.68 yards per route run (43rd among qualified WRs) and 30% contested-catch rate (82nd among qualified WRs) were concerning signs that highlighted his struggles in 2023.
Jeudy’s trade to the Browns gives him a fresh start, but he faces stiff competition for targets from Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore. This crowded receiving corps could limit his fantasy upside.
While Jeudy remains a skilled route runner with the ability to generate separation, his target share in Cleveland is uncertain. The Browns’ passing volume will depend on Deshaun Watson’s performance and the health of Nick Chubb, adding more variables to Jeudy’s outlook.
Throughout his career, Jeudy has been a WR4 with the name recognition of a WR2. His move to Cleveland doesn’t offer enough certainty to project him as a top-36 receiver in 2024.
Jeudy’s current ADP at WR56 suggests fantasy managers are cautious about his potential in Cleveland. He’s being drafted after players like Romeo Doubs and Mike Williams, who is returning from a torn ACL. While Jeudy’s talent makes him a decent pick in the 12th round, his upside is capped by the competition for targets in Cleveland.
Jeudy has the talent to contribute, but the crowded receiving corps in Cleveland and his lackluster 2023 season make him a risky pick at his current ADP. Other options in this range may offer more upside and reliability for your fantasy roster.