Cleveland Browns RB Jerome Ford was one of the top waiver pickups last season, serving as the team’s starter after Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury. Although Ford enters the 2024 NFL season as the starter, Chubb will likely be back at some point. How does this impact Ford’s value in fantasy football drafts?
Jerome Ford’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Last season, Ford was supposed to be a change-of-pace back — the guy who gave Chubb a few snaps off every so often. Sadly, Chubb went down in the second week of the season, elevating Ford into the RB1 role.
Ford had a very solid season, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game and finishing as the overall RB25. He exhibited solid lead-back skills, handling 204 carries and earning a respectable 10.6% target share.
Ford didn’t blow defenders away with moves or athleticism. In fact, he seldom generated missed tackles. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was outside the top 40. However, he still managed to average 3.54 yards created per touch, 20th in the league.
Fantasy managers likely remember Ford as the clear lead back, but that wasn’t exactly the case. For starters, Ford had over 15 carries in just four games in 2023. He only had two 100-yard rushing efforts.
Perhaps most interestingly, Ford’s control of the Browns’ backfield diminished as the year progressed. In Week 12, he played a season-high 70% of the snaps. He never went over 57% the rest of the way.
His relevance is a presumption that Ford is the clear RB1 until Chubb returns. He will open the season in that role, but Ford’s job security does not exist.
The Browns did not draft anyone at the position but did sign D’Onta Foreman. The journeyman running back has been solid each time he’s been asked to carry the load since returning from his torn Achilles a few years ago. There is certainly a world where Ford gets hurt, Foreman performs well, and Ford never gets his job back, or even where Foreman just earns a role in the lineup on his own.
Furthermore, both backs are on borrowed time. Adding to the uncertainty is the nature and severity of Chubb’s injury. We know Chubb is going to play again. We know it won’t be Week 1. But we have no idea when he actually will return.
Chubb could miss the entire season. He also could return halfway through the year. Then, how much work could Chubb handle in his first season back? He won’t see his usual workload, but will he merely see a few carries a game to get his feet wet? Or will he see enough to impact Ford and Foreman’s fantasy values?
All of the above makes Ford an unexciting selection for fantasy managers. We want our players to play their best over the second half of the season. Ford’s highest level of value is likely to come early in the season. That still matters, but fantasy managers drafting Ford as their RB3 may end up without a viable asset when the playoffs roll around.
There is good news, though. Ford’s ADP is RB39, No. 120 overall. At that price, he comes with very little risk. I, too, have Ford ranked at RB40. In situations where I need someone and he’s the top guy on my board, I will take him. He’s fine, but Ford isn’t the type of back I’m really looking to draft.
Jerome Ford’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points:Â 149.6
- Rushing Yards:Â 451.4
- Rushing TDs:Â 2.2
- Receptions:Â 47.9
- Receiving Yards:Â 347.5
- Receiving TDs:Â 5.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
