The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Kansas City Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can McKinnon come close to his sensational receiving upside again, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Jerick McKinnon’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It was a tale of two halves for McKinnon. Buried on the depth chart, likely no one would’ve predicted he would be one of the most important players to roster during the playoffs.
Over the first part of the season, McKinnon didn’t see much usage, especially when Mecole Hardman was in the lineup, as during those games, McKinnon was averaging close to just three targets per game.
But in Weeks 10-17, McKinnon was the RB7 in points per game (RB6 overall), third in RB receptions at 35, and scored seven receiving touchdowns.
Those are absurd numbers, and it should be no surprise that McKinnon had a career year, finishing as the RB21 overall with 291 yards on 72 carries (57th) for one touchdown with 56 receptions on 71 targets (ninth) for 512 yards with nine receiving scores.
With an 11.6% target share, McKinnon was 15th among running backs and seventh in routes run, fourth in yards per reception, eighth in yards per route run, fourth in yards per touch, and No. 1 in both yards created per touch and fantasy points per opportunity.
Yet, as we’ve seen in years past, stretches of sensational play don’t always equate to the next season producing the same result, especially when that player is already 30. McKinnon made the intelligent decision by re-signing with the Chiefs but will be flanked by Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Although I expect Pacheco to run away with the carry opportunities — no pun intended — McKinnon can be an RB3 with upside in PPR formats.
My early projections currently have MacKinnon sitting around 55-60 rushing attempts for 220 yards with 1-2 touchdowns while catching 60 passes for 525-550 yards and 5-6 additional scores.
Although more expensive than last year, McKinnon is a high-upside RB3 in favorable matchups that likely won’t break the bank.
Should You Draft Jerick McKinnon This Year?
Now that we know what McKinnon has done and what he might do, does his ADP makes sense, or are our fantasy managers heading into the draft spending a bit too much?
While it is still relatively early, we have a reasonably clear ADP picture, and currently, McKinnon is being drafted as the RB40 in with an ADP of 120. That will place him right at the end of the 10th and into the early 11th round in a 12-team format.
However, you are likely to encounter some variance in those numbers. Some managers remain incredibly bullish on McKinnon replicating his 2022 success, while others look at it as more of a flash in the pan, similar to Cordarrelle Patterson from a few years back.
McKinnon is an interesting name based on where he is going in drafts. He’s currently going around Zach Charbonnet, Devon Achane, Kendre Miller, Devin Singletary, Roschon Johnson, Jeff Wilson, and Tank Bigsby — basically, a bunch of rookies and a few veterans with upside.
It’s also a point in the draft where managers are likely just going to “get their guy,” so I would not expect any set order to hold during this time frame.
But if you are in a half-PPR or full-PPR format, McKinnon as an RB4 or RB5 is a solid draft pick, as you’re not spending a ton of draft capital while getting immense upside on your bench.
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For quite some time last year, including the playoffs, McKinnon was the No. 2 target for Mahomes. Even though I don’t expect that to carry over this year, he should still be routinely targeted and likely see a top-10 target volume for the position.
I won’t make McKinnon a priority selection and go into every draft saying, “I must have him.”
Still, he will be a player to keep in mind and remember during your upcoming fantasy football drafts as someone who should fairly easily outperform his ADP. He is also a phenomenal target for those opting for a Zero-RB strategy.
