Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon finished last season on a tear, resulting in the Chiefs bringing him back for another season. As the receiving back in a committee, can he once again outperform expectations? Should fantasy football managers draft McKinnon at his ADP this season?
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Jerick McKinnon’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
At the ripe young age of 30, McKinnon put together the best fantasy season of his career in 2022. He played in all 17 games and averaged 11.6 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB26.
Overall, McKinnon’s fantasy performance was fine. But he didn’t get there by giving fantasy managers consistent RB3 production. From Weeks 1-12, McKinnon didn’t even belong on fantasy rosters, as he averaged 6.5 ppg.
Then, in Week 13, McKinnon caught fire. From Weeks 13-17, McKinnon averaged a whopping 23.2 ppg, trailing only Christian McCaffrey over that span. He was not just an RB1 but an elite RB1. In Weeks 14 and 15, McKinnon scored over 30 fantasy points and finished as the overall RB1 in both weeks.
While McKinnon’s usage undoubtedly ticked up over the second half of the season, the real story behind his surge is touchdowns. McKinnon scored one over the first 12 weeks. He finished the season with 10. You do the math. According to Inside Edge, McKinnon caught seven touchdown passes in the red zone last season, the most among NFL RBs.
The touchdowns themselves weren’t even the most absurd part of McKinnon’s performance. It was the fact that nine of his 10 scores came via the air. This man plays running back.
McKinnon was legitimately good, though. His 5.56 yards created per touch led all running backs. His 6.3 yards per touch was fourth.
However, while McKinnon’s 11.5% target share was his largest as a member of the Chiefs, it was still only 15th in the league. He just happened to lead all running backs in fantasy points per opportunity. Essentially, McKinnon thrived on incredible — dare I say unsustainable — efficiency.
Is McKinnon a Good Fantasy Pick?
In no uncertain terms, fantasy managers are not buying it with McKinnon. If he were younger and less proven, perhaps his scorching finish would have gotten him overdrafted. But at 31 years old, with his history of injuries and usage, fantasy managers are not investing any sort of premium draft capital in McKinnon.
McKinnon’s ADP is way down at RB43, No. 127 overall. That is also exactly where I have him ranked. He is RB44 in our PFN consensus rankings.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
Much like the fantasy community, I refuse to believe McKinnon can do it again. Playing with Patrick Mahomes always helps, but Isiah Pacheco is going to be the primary early-down and goal-line back. Plus, I do have some lingering concerns that Clyde Edwards-Helaire may actually see the field.
McKinnon certainly has proven he has a high ceiling. So, if you want to take him, I can’t fault you. He’s not exactly expensive. But I’m looking elsewhere at the time where he is typically drafted.
