Jaylen Waddle showcased rare versatility in his second NFL season and has fantasy football managers excited about the possibilities — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy for the entire year.
In his sophomore campaign, Waddle caught 29 fewer balls than he did as a rookie but gained 341 more yards. The do-it-all Miami Dolphins WR won’t come cheap in your draft, but he may be well worth the asking price as he enters his age-24 season.
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Jaylen Waddle’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
The Fins showcased elite offensive upside with a healthy Tagovailoa in 2022 and are running it back with similar focal points. Tyreek Hill had a career season in his first year removed from the high-octane Chiefs, while Waddle was able to thrive despite playing a very different role than he filled in his rookie campaign.
Aside from the two elite receivers, the skill players on Miami’s offense are iffy. Cedrick Wilson Jr., Braxton Berrios, and Robbie Chosen are in the mix for the WR3 role, but none of them are going to see more than a few targets weekly. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ tight ends are unlikely to generate much yardage with Mike Gesicki no longer in town.
August 7 reminder that Jaylen Waddle is good at football pic.twitter.com/rlZh1yy23z
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
The backfield stands to give the Dolphins nice balance when they are all healthy — it’s just a matter of that happening.
Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert are a pair of injury-prone veterans that will handle work early in the season with the hope that De’Von Achane can develop as a rookie. It would be a good problem if Achane excels early and carries are split three ways, as that would make this offense the best version of itself.
Miami once again boasts an offense worthy of fear and, for fantasy managers, the concentration of targets makes it a unit that should offer weekly production from the spots you’d expect.
Is Waddle a Good Fantasy Pick?
Derek Tate and I disagreed on Waddle a recent podcast, and I took the optimistic side of the argument. At the top of my draft, I want versatility — because versatility creates stability. Whether it’s a running back who excels as a pass catcher or a receiver capable of a varied route tree, I want guys that are borderline impossible for the defense to eliminate.
Waddle’s 2021 vs. 2022 (all ranks are among WR with 100+ targets)
- aDOT: 7.1 (37th) / 12.1 (ninth)
- Yards per catch: 9.8 (40th) / 18.1 (first)
- Touchdown rate: 5.8% / 10.7%
Of course, the risk of Tagovailoa suffering another head injury cannot be overstated.
Waddle With Tua vs. Without Tua in 2022
- Routes: 339 / 184
- Targets per route: 26% / 15.8%
- Fantasy points per route: 0.55 / 0.19
- Fantasy points per target: 2.11 / 1.23
If I draft Waddle in the early rounds, I do so understanding that I need some WR insurance in the second half of the draft to protect against a Tua-less outcome. As long as you’re drafting smart around that downside, I think Waddle makes as much sense as any receiver in the back half of the second round.
- PFN Consensus: 28th overall
- ADP: 21st overall
