Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s profile is strong, but the immediate fit for fantasy football managers is a question due to his landing spot. The Seattle Seahawks were one of two teams — the Eagles being the other — that had multiple players post 80-1000-6 receiving lines last season. Can the rookie take targets off the plate of the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart? Will Seattle employ more three-WR sets?
Did you get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Make championship-winning decisions with PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer!
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Projected Role
Smith-Njigba profiles as a slot receiver in the NFL, and at 6’1”, he fits the trend of adding size to that spot on the field. That all sounds great, but until Tyler Lockett shows some signs of slowing down, that slot role is his. This time last season, we were worried about Lockett’s ability to continue producing with Russell Wilson out of town … we were wrong. Dead wrong.
2015-21
- Routes/Targets: 18.2%
- Catch Rate: 71.8%
- TD Rate: 10.0%
2022
- Routes/Targets: 22.0%
- Catch Rate: 71.8%
- TD Rate: 10.7%
Last season, Lockett had 12 more catches than any of his teammates had targets from the slot. He turns 31 in the first month of the season, and Father Time can sink in at any time. But considering that Lockett continues to produce and has only missed two games over the past six seasons, counting on JSN to supplant the veteran is a longshot.
Can Geno Smith Sustain Three Pass Catchers?
You can only gauge so much from last season for two reasons: It was about as good as it gets from Geno Smith, and this team didn’t have a third option as talented as Smith-Njibga.
Understanding that, it’s still worth noting that Lockett and DK Metcalf accounted for 24 of 27 instances in which a Seahawk receiver surpassed 8.0 fantasy points last season. That’s 89%, and 8.0 points isn’t exactly a high hurdle (that would have been WR56).
To put JSN on the weekly Flex radar, we’d need at least 10.0 ppg. For reference, three teams had their third pass-catching option reach that number last season:
- Brandon Aiyuk (12.3 ppg, behind Deebo Samuel and George Kittle)
- Mecole Hardman (10.9 ppg, behind Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster)
- Dallas Goedert (10.6 ppg, behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith)
On that list, we have a Kyle Shanahan offense and the two teams that played in the Super Bowl. To my knowledge, the Seahawks haven’t lured Shanahan away from the 49ers, and I’m not picking them to reach the Big Game. Smith-Njigba is a strong dynasty buy and will have productive years in short order, but I think he’s more likely to finish outside of the top 40 at the position this season than he is inside the top 30.