Should You Start Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, or Audric Estime vs. the Seahawks in Fantasy Football Week 1?

The Denver Broncos backfield enters the 2024 NFL season with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin competing for the 50 receptions we saw from vacated from this position with the release of Samaje Perine.

Which Broncos RB should you start in your fantasy football lineup in Week 1?

Should You Start Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, or Audric Estime This Week?

In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Williams is the player to start. His projected 11.5 points include a projection of 51 rushing yards, three receptions, and 17 yards. While that doesn’t seem like a big stat line, it outperforms the consensus projection for McLaughlin (7.3 points) and Audric Estime (3.5 points).

However, when you isolate my rankings, I see McLaughlin outperforming both Williams and Estime for a multitude of reasons.

First off, Estime is a rookie back making his NFL debut with two players ahead of him on the depth chart. I don’t see him having a significant role in the season opener. He does possess some standalone value over the back half of the season if Williams or McLaughlin get hurt or struggle with efficiency — but I wouldn’t expect a fantasy-relevant role for the newcomer to this backfield in Week 1.

Speaking of efficiency, McLaughlin averaged 5.4 yards per carry, managed to catch 31 of 36 targets for 160 yards, and found the end zone three times on his 107 total touches working behind Williams in 2023. The yards-per-carry mark is far superior to Williams’ 3.6 — which marks the third straight season where Williams per-carry efficiency has dropped.

McLaughlin flashed when his role expanded early in his rookie year with back-to-back 17+ fantasy-point outings, speaking to his potential upside in this pass-happy backfield.

Speaking of that pass-happy backfield, no team targeted the running back position more often than the Broncos last year, which fed their rushers a 29.8% target share — 5% higher than the second-place team (New York Jets). This certainly gives McLaughlin a path to seeing far more work in the passing attack with Perine — who caught 50 passes last season — no longer on the roster.

On the flip side, Williams has shown fantasy managers some encouraging signs regarding his snap share and per-touch efficiency this preseason — which offers reason for optimism with respect to the talented back potentially reverting to the explosive playmaking we saw from him in his rookie year. Additionally, Williams is likely to be the preferred goal-line option over McLaughlin due to his size advantage.

The matchup certainly suggests this backfield could have a productive day at the office against a Seattle Seahawks defense that gave up an average of 138.4 rushing yards per game — which ranked 31st in the league in 2023.

I understand why fantasy managers were intrigued by Williams at his price point in fantasy drafts as the potential leading ball carrier in Denver this year.

Yet, it is very hard for me to ignore the fact Williams was the least efficient back on the Broncos’ roster in 2023, finishing behind Perine and undrafted rookie McLaughlin in YPC. McLaughlin also produced twice as many explosive runs (20+ yards) on far fewer carries.

This is why I am not going to overlook the snaps-and-touches split we saw from McLaughlin and Williams this preseason, which suggests this could be very close to a 50/50 division in 2024.

Javonte Williams remains the Broncos starting RB – but Jaleel McLaughlin was more involved.

McLauglin played 55% of the starter snaps & earned 50% of the carries.

This is a messy backfield on what could be a bad offense.

Avoid Denver RBs right now…

— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) August 19, 2024

If both of these players are on the field equally and see a similar amount of touches, then I believe McLaughlin has the higher likelihood to produce more explosive plays against a leaky Seahawks run defense in Week 1 — which is why I recommend starting McLaughlin over Williams for the season opener.

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Williams in Week 1

Javonte Williams: It appears that Williams is well removed from the “he is on the roster bubble” nonsense from earlier this month and is in line to lead this backfield in a significant way. I’ve been higher than the industry on Williams all offseason, using the logic that he deserves some leniency for his underwhelming 2023 season after the ACL tear. I think we could see a vintage performance to open this year.

Last year, the Seahawks allowed the fourth-most running back carries of 15+ yards (22), and we know Williams can hit the home run. Just as encouraging as that is Nix’s profile. This preseason, he showcased nice athleticism, and while it was called back, he did find Williams for a touchdown this preseason against the Packers.

Even last year, which most considered a lost season, there were only three running backs in the NFL with more 10+ carry, 2+ catch games than Williams. I’m happy to be early to the party for a versatile 24-year-old in an offense that might have a higher ceiling than most assume.