Jared Goff’s fantasy outlook, ADP, and projection for 2022

What is Jared Goff's fantasy outlook and projection for 2022, and should you look to draft him at his current ADP?

One of the lower-tier quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy football, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff projects to be a late-round pick in 2022 as his fantasy outlook suggests his conservative style could hamper his production. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Goff’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?

Jared Goff’s fantasy outlook for 2022

It’s easy for fantasy managers to dismiss Jared Goff. He isn’t a flashy player. He doesn’t make highlight-reel plays, break off long runs, or even throw the ball deep. I mean, he is the QB of a team that went 3-13-1 in 2021 and has a 2022 win total — according to Caesars Sportsbook — of 6.5 games. Yet, despite all of that, he might be better than you think for fantasy in 2022.

Goff makes his money by getting the ball in space to playmakers, even to the detriment of taking shots on deeper balls. Goff’s average depth of throw has decreased over the last four seasons, with his 6.6 IYA in 2021 ranking dead last among 38 qualifying quarterbacks. He has also averaged just 13 completions of 20-plus air yards the previous two seasons.

Despite this, Goff still outperformed his ADP while finishing as the QB24 on the year and QB23 in points per game (13.3 PPR), placing him ahead of Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. He did that with D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson missing a combined nine games and a WR corps consisting of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and KhaDarel Hodge.

Things are much different in 2022. Not only does Goff have a more well-rounded group of pass catchers, but head coach Dan Campbell is also heading into Year 2, which cannot be understated. The Lions are on the rise. I feel they are the third-best team in their division. While Goff is not a QB1 for fantasy, if you need a QB2 with a realistic shot at a top-20 finish, Goff is worth the consideration.

How the Detroit Lions’ depth chart impacts Jared Goff’s fantasy projection for the season

The Lions are a sneaky talented team, especially on offense. Swift is one of the top pass-catching RBs, and St. Brown was a world beater when called on last year. From Weeks 12-17, St. Brown averaged 11.2 targets and 93.3 yards per game. Things will hopefully be different in 2022 as St. Brown should have some help.

For one, the Lions added DJ Chark in free agency. Chark was once viewed as an up-and-coming superstar after his 2019 breakout with the Jaguars, posting 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and eight TDs on 113 targets. Unfortunately, inefficiency in 2020 and a fractured ankle last year have tarnished that once bright upside. Signed to a one-year deal, both the Lions and Goff hope Chark can bring the same explosiveness to Detroit.

However, he is by no means the only new addition. Detroit made a potentially massive move in the draft by selecting Alabama WR Jameson Williams with the No. 12 overall pick. Williams could have even been the first receiver off the board if not for an ACL injury he sustained in the national championship.

But by then, his draft stock was set. In 15 games, Williams recorded 70 receptions, 1,572 yards, and 15 touchdowns for the Crimson Tide. Williams was statistically one of the most dominant players in the nation, accounting for 20.8% of the receptions and 2.75 yards per team passing attempt.

Regardless, it is unlikely we will see this upside maximized in 2022. The Lions will be cautious with the player who could become the face of their franchise. After being placed on the reserve/NFI list, Williams will miss at least the first four games. Odds are he is slowly worked into the system once they are comfortable with his recovery and conditioning.

The additions of Chark and Williams are counterintuitive to a team with Goff under center. Pairing two blistering vertical threats with a QB with the lowest IYA suggests they are moves for the future, not for now. Goff is the best option they have and is someone who is perfectly made for a transition. What he is not is a franchise QB, and the Lions will be looking for that in the 2023 NFL Draft with potentially C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young.

Goff’s ADP for 2022

With an ADP of 194, Goff is coming off the boards as the QB26 in 1QB formats, placing him toward the front of the 16th round in 12-team fantasy leagues. In Superflex formats, Goff is a mid-round pick, if not a bit later, as a QB3 for some depth on a roster.

In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Goff is the QB25 and 189th overall ranked player. I am slightly lower as Goff is the QB28 in my rankings and 186th player overall. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.

Now don’t get me wrong; I am by no means calling Goff a QB1 or even someone who should be drafted in 1QB leagues. But in 2QB or Superflex leagues, Goff offers some semblance of production for little to no cost on draft day. While he doesn’t have much of a ceiling compared to others due to both his playstyle and lack of rushing upside, as a cheap QB3 in Superflex leagues, Goff will do the job.

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