The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Washington Commanders on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Jalen McMillan.
Is Jalen McMillan Playing vs. the Commanders?
McMillan does not have an injury designation heading into the game this weekend. Barring any setbacks, he is on track to play vs. the Commanders.
We’ll continue to monitor the Buccaneers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Jalen McMillan on Wild Card Weekend?
I compared Jalen McMillan to Amon-Ra St. Brown in this space last week and he went out and lived up to expectations with the NFC South on the line (5-74-1 against the Saints).
By no means am I victory-lapping. The kid has been great for a month now, and I didn’t exactly take the stance that he would become St. Brown so much as highlight his path of a similar trajectory, but he’s every bit ready to produce at a consistent level.
He only saw one target way back in Week 1 when these teams squared off, but he made it count (32-yard touchdown), and he should get plenty of chances to make splash plays this week.
There is, however, one risk factor that has me nervous. Marshon Lattimore has done a great job blanketing Mike Evans in the past. If Washington operates with that as a defensive game plan, there’s a world in which McMillan is seeing a whole lot of (defensive) attention.
That thought process is enough to have me moving off of him more than I’d like, but this is a tough slate with a huge middle-tier of receivers. If you want to load up on three receivers in this price range and hope that two pay off in a big way, I have no problem going in this direction. But the way I’m building, I haven’t landed on much in the way of McMillan exposure.
It’s a terrifying life to live.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jalen McMillan’s Fantasy Points Outlook on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, McMillan is projected to score 14.4 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.6 receptions for 79.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, the Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Obviously, that's not the caliber of defense Washington will see in the playoffs, starting with the Buccaneers. Washington continues to miss Marshon Lattimore, who has played only two games since being traded to the team before Week 10. For the season, the Commanders ranked 24th in defensive EPA per dropback, the third-lowest among the 14 playoff teams.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Dallas Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Jalen McMillan’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card WR PPR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN (at LAR)
2) Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. MIN)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. GB)
4) Nico Collins | HOU (vs. LAC)
5) Mike Evans | TB (vs. WAS)
6) Ladd McConkey | LAC (at HOU)
7) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at TB)
8) Courtland Sutton | DEN (at BUF)
9) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
10) Jordan Addison | MIN (at LAR)
11) Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. MIN)
12) George Pickens | PIT (at BAL)
13) Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. WAS)
14) Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. DEN)
15) Quentin Johnston | LAC (at HOU)
16) Jayden Reed | GB (at PHI)
17) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at BUF)
18) Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs. PIT)
19) Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. DEN)
20) Romeo Doubs | GB (at PHI)
21) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at TB)
22) Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. DEN)
23) Calvin Austin III | PIT (at BAL)
24) Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at PHI)
25) John Metchie III | HOU (vs. LAC)
26) Jalen Nailor | MIN (at LAR)
27) Devaughn Vele | DEN (at BUF)
28) Dyami Brown | WAS (at TB)
29) Sterling Shepard | TB (vs. WAS)
30) Mack Hollins | BUF (vs. DEN)
31) Mike Williams | PIT (at BAL)
32) Tutu Atwell | LAR (vs. MIN)
33) Diontae Johnson | HOU (vs. LAC)
34) Nelson Agholor | BAL (vs. PIT)
35) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. MIN)
36) DJ Chark | LAC (at HOU)
37) Van Jefferson | PIT (at BAL)
38) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at TB)
39) Troy Franklin | DEN (at BUF)
40) Robert Woods | HOU (vs. LAC)
41) Malik Heath | GB (at PHI)
42) Curtis Samuel | BUF (vs. DEN)
43) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU (vs. LAC)
44) Bo Melton | GB (at PHI)
45) Jordan Whittington | LAR (vs. MIN)
46) Tylan Wallace | BAL (vs. PIT)
47) Derius Davis | LAC (at HOU)
48) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. GB)
49) Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN (at BUF)
50) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at TB)
51) Tyler Johnson | LAR (vs. MIN)
52) Ryan Miller | TB (vs. WAS)
53) Devontez Walker | BAL (vs. PIT)
54) Trey Palmer | TB (vs. WAS)
55) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. GB)
56) Rakim Jarrett | TB (vs. WAS)
57) Brandon Powell | MIN (at LAR)
58) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
59) Anthony Miller | BAL (vs. PIT)
60) Christian Watson | GB (at PHI)
61) Tyrell Shavers | BUF (vs. DEN)
62) Roman Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
63) K.J. Osborn | BUF (vs. DEN)
64) Dennis Houston | TB (vs. WAS)
65) Dayton Wade | BAL (vs. PIT)
66) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. GB)
67) Dez Fitzpatrick | LAC (at HOU)
68) David Sills V | DEN (at BUF)
69) Cody Thompson | TB (vs. WAS)
70) Brycen Tremayne | WAS (at TB)
71) Cornelius Johnson | GB (at PHI)
72) Kazmeir Allen | WAS (at TB)
73) Lucky Jackson | MIN (at LAR)
74) Drake Stoops | LAR (vs. MIN)
75) Danny Gray | PHI (vs. GB)
76) Xavier Smith | LAR (vs. MIN)
Commanders at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
QB: Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
Offense: The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
Offense: In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Defense: Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Fantasy: Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.