The Detroit Lions dominated defenses last year with one of the toughest one-two running back punches in the NFL. David Montgomery started the year as the lead back before rookie Jahmyr Gibbs began to break out, so who’s going to be more productive this year?
Let’s talk about which Lions RB fantasy football managers should favor for the season-opening game against the Los Angeles Rams.
Should You Start Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Gibbs is the player to start. In half-PPR formats, his projected 16.6 points include 64.2 rushing yards and 0.7 touchdowns on the ground, as well as 3.53 receptions and 21.5 yards.
Montgomery is projected to have a solid day with 11.4 half-PPR points, but Gibbs’ receiving output pushes him over the top.
My ranking for the Detroit running backs aligns with that projection, but I find that both players are worth starting against the Rams.
Los Angeles had one of the worst inside-run defenses in the NFL last year and lost All-Pro interior defensive tackle Aaron Donald, so there should be plenty of lanes for Montgomery to run through — especially near the goal line. However, this game should be competitive until the end, so expect Gibbs to catch plenty of passes.
Gibbs’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Fantasy managers were frustrated with Gibbs during the early stages of last season since the Lions only gradually worked him into the offense as a rookie. He put up double-digit PPR points just once in his first four weeks before missing the next two.
From that point on, however, he was a different player, racking up at least 26.2 PPR points in each of his next three games and scoring a touchdown in eight of the final 11 contests of the season after being held scoreless until Week 7.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
This year, Gibbs is set to be a bona-fide lead back, and he was taken in the first round of almost every fantasy draft.
Last season, he ran for 945 yards despite a slow start and two weeks missed; expect him to comfortably rush for 1,000 yards while chipping in as a receiver, starting with a big performance against Los Angeles.
Montgomery’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
You might imagine that Montgomery’s production would have waned towards the end of last season with Gibbs’ emergence, but that was only the case to a certain degree. Yes, the veteran’s highest-scoring games were in Week 4 and Week 5 — with 34.1 and 20.9 PPR points, respectively — but he was a viable option all season long.
As the Lions’ primary goal-line back, Montgomery scored 13 touchdowns last year, a large part of what made him good for at least 10 points nearly every week. After the Week 9 bye, Montgomery didn’t score over 18 points again but never fell into single digits either, making him a steady and reliable fantasy option.
This should be a week where Montgomery has an opportunity for some of the inside rushing touches the Lions love to give him.
Lions-Rams will likely be an offense-oriented game with plenty of pace, but that shouldn’t stop Detroit from working to establish the run at home against a vulnerable Los Angeles front seven or giving Montgomery his usual weekly goal-line touchdown.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Montgomery and Gibbs in Week 1
Jahmyr Gibbs: This backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? They shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:
- Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
- Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share
Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be this team’s top option close to the end zone (in this era of goal-line vulture QBs, that’s not a concern in Detroit) is nothing short of enticing.
Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rush TDs and 50 receptions since 2000.
Gibbs is special and matchup-proof. The fact that the Rams allowed the second-fewest RB runs of 15+ yards last season (seven) is noteworthy for showdown contests, but there’s no reason to look elsewhere when it comes to your season-long league.
David Montgomery: After Week 5 last season, he played at least 52% of the snaps just once (Week 13 at NO, and it was a game-script situation — DET led by 21 points after just seven minutes). I worry about Montgomery’s long-term role in this offense if Gibbs shows the ability to succeed at a high level with an increase in work, but we aren’t yet to the moment where you’d bench Monty in a game that is projected to be a shootout.