If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this must-win Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Week 18 matchup on Saturday, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations.
All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook. Make sure to check out FanDuel, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Jaguars vs. Titans Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
The Jaguars began this season as one of the biggest long shots to win the Super Bowl. Sure, a healthy Travis Etienne Jr., bolstered receiving corps, and improving defense would help. But the Titans were the defending AFC No. 1 seed — despite losing Derrick Henry for half the 2021 season. And the supposedly improved Colts (with Matt Ryan at the helm) had Super Bowl odds just below the Bengals.
The point is, Jacksonville was supposed to be another year or two away from competing for the playoffs. Instead, they’ve reeled off four straight wins to come within a victory (or tie) of locking down a first-round home game in the postseason.
Meanwhile, the 7-9 Titans are reeling after starting 7-3. Finishing first in the AFC South last season didn’t do them any favors this year, as they’ve faced one of the league’s toughest schedules.
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With rookie Treylon Burks frequently hurt, veteran Robert Woods no longer a consistent force, Austin Hooper relegated to irrelevance, Ryan Tannehill hurt, and Malik Willis clearly not ready, the team is forced to start Joshua Dobbs in their most important game of the season.
It took Dobbs six seasons before starting his first NFL game . . . last weekend. The following prop bets assume Dobbs’ heroic debut against the Cowboys will not carry over against the locked-in Jaguars, which presumably will stack the box and force Dobbs to beat them through the air.
This game could get ugly. I’m predicting a 31-13 Jags victory.
Trevor Lawrence Player Props
I’m all in on a resounding Jaguars victory. Therefore, I’m all in on a dominant performance by their passing game.
When these teams last met in Tennessee, Trevor Lawrence threw for 368 yards and three scores. Ignore his recent downturn — zero touchdown passes in his last two outings against the Jets and Texans. Both teams lead the league in fewest TD passes allowed.
Conversely, the Titans have allowed the second-most TD passes and most passing yards. Jacksonville’s path to victory flows through the air.
- Passing yards over 259.5
(-120) — BetMGM - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-130) — FanDuel - Interceptions under 0.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Travis Etienne Jr. Player Props
A year after missing his rookie campaign, Travis Etienne Jr. has emerged as an elite running back on an ascending team. Not a bad gig if you can earn it. And Etienne sure has earned it.
Etienne is one of the league’s most electric and complete backs, and he’s facing a defense that’s surrendered the ninth-most RB receptions. A positive game script for the Jags should keep Etienne active early and often.
- Receptions over 1.5
(-158) — FanDuel - Receiving yards over 13.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Joshua Dobbs Player Props
Sticking with the anticipated game script, Joshua Dobbs will need to throw it more than Tennessee wants him to. That’s no knock on Dobbs. Yet, if Derrick Henry isn’t dominating, the game is all but lost.
MORE: NFL Week 18 Best Bets Based on Likely Outcomes
There’s only so much Dobbs can do with a subpar receiving corps, backed by a defense that hemorrhages passing yards and scores. Realistically, Dobbs might be forced to attempt 40+ passes.
- Passing yards over 182.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Pass attempts over 29.5
(Even) — BetMGM
Derrick Henry Player Props
The biggest question heading into this contest is whether (or how long) Henry can keep the Titans competitive. Maybe I’m too negative about their chances. Maybe Henry will have an epic performance that further cements his legendary status.
But Jacksonville is already seventh in the league in fewest yards per carry yielded. Now imagine them stacking the box throughout the second half, up two scores, and daring the Titans to catch up through the air.
Henry’s path to dominance is narrow. His best bet comes through the air as a safety valve for the inexperienced Dobbs.
- Rushing yards under 92.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Receptions over 2.5
(+120) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 13.5
(-115) — DraftKings
