The Jacksonville Jaguars are the winners of six-straight, and are riding high after four straight victories in convincing fashion. Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence are red-hot on offense, while the defense has emerged as one of the best in the league.
Let’s take a closer look at the Jaguars’ chances of making the NFL Playoffs in 2025 and how they can seal the deal as the potential AFC South champions.
What Are the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the AFC South?
The Jaguars are currently situated in first place in the AFC South, with a record of 11-4, while the Houston Texans are sitting at 10-5. According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Jaguars now have a 75.9% chance of winning the AFC South.
#UPDATE: The Jaguars have secured a spot in the playoffs after the Indianapolis Colts’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. The Texans now need just one more win to secure a playoff spot. Similarly, Houston will make the playoffs if the Colts lose in Week 17.
Even if the Jaguars lose out, which is highly unlikely given they play the Tennessee Titans in the finale, they’d still be likely to take one of the three AFC Wild Card spots over other fringe competitors like the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens.
Additionally, among more legitimate Wild Card contenders, the Jaguars have a head-to-head win over the Los Angeles Chargers, which would give them the edge in seeding if the two teams were in a two-way tie.
Ultimately, however, the opposing team that has the most say in shaping the Jaguars’ NFL Playoff destiny is the Texans.
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After starting the year 0-3, the Texans have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games, and they’re the winners of seven straight contests. Houston’s offense is starting to find its stride, and the defense is arguably the scariest three-level unit in the league.
The Jaguars don’t have any remaining games against the Texans, as the two teams have already split. However, because they’ve split, if the two teams end up tying for the AFC South crown, we have to go down the tiebreaker ladder to figure out who gets the edge.
After head-to-head, the next two tiebreakers are win-loss in division play and win-loss among common opponents. Jacksonville is 3-1 in division play, with games against Tennessee and Indianapolis remaining. Houston is 4-1 in division play, with just a season finale showdown against the Colts left on the docket.
If the Jaguars split their remaining divisional games while the Texans lose, or if the Jaguars and Texans both win out in their remaining divisional games, they’ll have a tied in-division record. If the two teams finish with the same record, we need to progress to common opponents.
Against common opponents, Jacksonville has a record of 9-3. Houston has a record of 8-4. This means that, once again, in a scenario where Houston evens the score with Jacksonville, they would end up with the same record against common opponents, as their remaining games are versus common opponents.
Past common opponents, the next tiebreakers are win-loss within the team’s given conference, and then strength of victory. In AFC play, Jacksonville is currently 8-2. Houston is 9-2. This is where Jacksonville is most vulnerable.
Both teams have two AFC games remaining. If Houston wins one more game than Jacksonville over this stretch, Houston and Jacksonville will be tied, and Houston will have a superior AFC record. That would grant Houston the AFC South title.
To make matters more chaotic, the Colts still have a small chance to sneak in as a six-loss team if they win out while Jacksonville loses two games.
In that scenario, the Colts would likely stand equal to Jacksonville in division record, conference record, and common opponents, though Jacksonville would eventually win the tiebreaker with a superior strength of victory (0.75 compared to 0.6).
To sum up, the Jaguars will be in a good spot for the playoffs even if they struggle in their final two games. However, the Texans are still very much a threat to take the division. To stave off the chaos, the best remedy for Jacksonville is simple: Keep winning, just like they’ve done the past few weeks.
Jaguars’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
Jacksonville’s remaining schedule features one wild card hopeful and one team in the hunt for a top pick.
- Week 17: at Indianapolis Colts
- Week 18: vs. Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars have over a 50% chance of winning two of their remaining three games. The PFSN FPM gives the Jaguars a 58.2% chance to beat the Colts and a 74.7% chance to beat the Titans in the season finale.
If the PFSN FPM’s percentages hold, the Jaguars will get to 13 wins and lock in an NFL Playoff spot. With that said, the tiebreaker scenarios discussed above would come into play if the Texans win out.
