There are some good games as Sunday progresses, but I’m not ruling out this London game being among the best. There are many ways to go about building your same game parlay picks for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills — I’m telling a very specific story and have the numbers to back it up.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -5 - Moneyline
Jaguars +190, Bills -230 - Total
48
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP, misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: This is the second game since the Josh Allens have been in the league that their two teams have played. The first meeting saw 75 passes thrown: how many points were scored? (a) 24 (b) 15 (c) 57 (d) 44.
The Jaguars remain in London, but we, the fans, get to trade out the Atlanta Falcons for the Bills on the other sideline. From a watchability standpoint, that’s like going from Pop-Tarts for dinner to filet mignon.
When you consider that many sites push you toward “yes” or “over” bets when constructing your same-game parlay picks, this type of game gives us many more options.
I’ve got one player in mind and anybody that has checked out the PFN Fantasy YouTube channel or our PFN Fantasy Podcast, you’ve got a good idea of where I’m going with this.
Calvin Ridley.
MORE: Week 5 NFL Bets and Expert Picks
The Bills lost Tre’Davious White (Achilles) for the season last week, a devastating injury that will demand a change in their defensive structure. Eventually. How much can they realistically change in a single week that includes a trip across the pond?
I have no idea, but what I can tell you is what the most targeted receiver has done against the Bills in Buffalo’s last six games played without their star corner.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9 catches, 122 yards, TD (10 targets)
- Amari Cooper: 8 catches, 113 yards, 2 TD (12 targets)
- Justin Jefferson: 10 catches, 193 yards, TD (16 targets)
- Garrett Wilson: 8 catches, 92 yards (9 targets)
- Romeo Doubs: 4 catches, 62 yards, TD (7 targets)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 5 catches, 113 yards, TD (5 targets)
That works out to an average of 7.3 catches and 115.8 yards with a 74.6% catch rate. Through three weeks, Ridley was averaging 8.7 targets per game. He was shadowed by A.J. Terrell for much of last week, so I’m electing to overlook that given that Buffalo no longer has that as an option.
Will Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley get back to his Week 1 breakout, or should fantasy managers try to trade him? https://t.co/Tm0PhjAO41
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy)
Some quick back-of-the-napkin math — stick with me. If you allocate 8.7 targets Ridley’s way and give him the catch rate of those past top targets, we’d be projecting 6.5 receptions. For his career, when catching at least six passes:
- 90+ yards in 57.9% of games
- 48+ points scored in 68.4%
- TD in 73.7% of games
Based on the past few weeks, checking all of those boxes feels like a tall task, but it happened in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts (52 points with Ridley going for 101 yards and a touchdown).
In that game, the Jags were facing a mobile QB who got his top threat into the end zone and fed him over 28% of the targets. Sound like something we could see from Buffalo?
I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.
Trivia Answer: B. The Jaguars beat the Bills 9-6 in Week 9 of the 2021 season
Same Game Parlay Pick: Over 46.5 points, Calvin Ridley 90+ yards, Calvin Ridley anytime TD
Odds: +850 (at DraftKings)
