Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances and Scenarios Week 17: Lawrence Leading the Way

Heading into Week 17, what are the Jacksonville Jaguars' playoff scenarios to continue their amazing run into the NFL's postseason?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have mounted one of the more impressive comebacks in recent memory thanks to their late-season turnaround. And now, Trevor Lawrence has this team on the cusp of its first playoff spot since 2017. What are the Jaguars’ current playoff chances, and what is the best-case scenario this week?

4 PM ET Update
With their win over the Houston Texans in Week 17, the Jaguars now start preparing for the Tennessee Titans in what’ll be a win-and-in game for Jacksonville. Be on the lookout for the Week 18 schedule as the NFL may decide to flex the Jaguars vs. Titans bout for the AFC South title into the Sunday Night Football window.

11:15 PM ET Update
The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 16-13.

Jaguars Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17

For the Jaguars’ playoff chances, things are pretty simple at this point. Win, and you’re in. They currently sit at the top of the AFC South with a 7-8 record. They are tied with the Tennessee Titans, who are also at 7-8. This week, the Titans face off against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, while the Jaguars take on the two-win Houston Texans.

Regardless of what happens in those games, it will be the winner of Week 18’s showdown that will decide whether the Titans or Jags make it in as the AFC’s No. 4 seed and AFC South Champion. Luckily for Jacksonville, they get to host the Titans in that all-important matchup.

MORE: List of NFL Teams Eliminated From Playoffs in 2022

However, there is another long-shot way that both the Titans and Jaguars can make the playoffs, but it would require a ton of help. If Jacksonville wins this week against Houston but loses in Week 18, they can still finish with the seventh seed. They would need both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to lose their Week 17 matchups.

Then, they would need both the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots to lose their Week 18 matchups. Finally, they would need the Pittsburgh Steelers to lose at least one of their next two games. It’s quite a long shot, but it isn’t impossible.

What Are the Jaguars’ Playoff Chances?

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Jaguars have a 76% chance of making the playoffs and a 74% chance of winning the division. With Week 18 basically being a defacto playoff game, those numbers don’t really change based on what happens this week. If Jacksonville somehow loses this week and the Titans win against Dallas, the Jagaurs’ playoff percentage only fails to 66%.

At Draftkings Sportsbook, the Jaguars’ odds of making the playoffs sit at -225. That’s a crazy number considering where this team is coming from. They started the year 2-7, with embarrassing losses to teams like the Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Denver Broncos.

But now, Lawrence has finally started to look like an actual NFL QB and has helped turn this team around. Before last week’s weather-impacted game against the Jets, Jacksonville had put up more than 24 points in four of their last six. They currently have a top-10 offense in the NFL and are playing like legit playoff contenders.

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