Sam Darnold was already the heavy favorite to be the Minnesota Vikings‘ starting quarterback when they face the New York Giants on Sept. 8 to open the regular season. Now that first-round rookie J.J. McCarthy is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair his torn meniscus, Darnold is cemented as QB1.
While Darnold has struggled throughout his NFL career, he’s still only 27 and is entering a welcoming offensive environment in Minnesota.
Justin Jefferson is the league’s best wideout, Jordan Addison posted 900+ receiving yards as a rookie, and TE T.J. Hockenson (ACL, MCL) could return by midseason. The Vikings boast a top-10 offensive line and a creative head coach/play-caller in Kevin O’Connell.
Can Darnold take advantage of his luxurious situation and rejuvenate his career? NFL history is littered with examples of late-bloomer quarterbacks who have done just that.
Can Vikings QB Sam Darnold Follow Other NFL Late Bloomers?
Darnold managed a few standout performances with the Carolina Panthers in 2021 and 2022, but he’s been a disappointment since joining the New York Jets as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Darnold didn’t post a QB rating above 48 in any of his first four pro campaigns.
Since 2000, 51 quarterbacks have started at least 40 games over their first four NFL seasons, per TruMedia. Among that group, Darnold ranks 41st in interception rate, 42nd in sack rate, 44th in passing success rate, 47th in adjusted net yards per attempt, and 48th in touchdown rate.
Can he take a step forward next season? These 10 quarterbacks give Darnold hope of a career makeover in 2024.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Another former Jet like Darnold, Geno Smith threw 34 interceptions over his first two seasons in New York but was ticketed for starting duties again in 2015. A punch (and subsequent broken jaw) from teammate IK Enemkpali sidelined Smith, who didn’t again start more than three games in a season until 2022.
Smith handled backup jobs for the Jets, New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, and Seattle Seahawks before replacing Russell Wilson as Seattle’s starter in 2022. Facing the lowest of expectations, Smith won Comeback Player of the Year honors after leading the NFL in completion rate and throwing 30 touchdowns for the playoff-bound Seahawks.
Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings
While Darnold was the No. 3 pick in 2018, Case Keenum wasn’t even drafted out of Houston in 2012 despite exiting college as the NCAA’s all-time leader in passing yards, touchdowns, and completions.
Keenum spent time with the Houston Texans and St. Louis Rams before fortuitously signing with the Vikings in 2017. After Minnesota starter Sam Bradford went down, Keenum started Week 2 and never looked back, finishing his career-best season with 3,547 yards and 22 touchdowns while ranking second in QBR (73.3).
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Keenum guided the Vikings to the NFC North crown and the “Minneapolis Miracle” before losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC title game.
That performance earned Keenum a two-year, $36 million contract from the Denver Broncos the following offseason. While he never hit the same sort of highs and was quickly relegated to backup status, his career arc proves a significant payday could be out there for Darnold.
Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers/Kansas City Chiefs
Remember when we mentioned Darnold’s poor performance in various quarterback metrics through his first four NFL seasons? Alex Smith was the only QB on this list who was worse.
Smith was dead last among that 51-quarterback sample in adjusted net yards per attempt and passing success rate. He was somehow less productive than Joey Harrington, David Carr, and Mark Sanchez.
Of course, things got better. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman played to Smith’s strengths with the San Francisco 49ers en route to multiple NFC Championship Game appearances.
After Colin Kaepernick emerged in the Bay Area, the 49ers traded Smith to Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs. Smith averaged 3,521 yards, 20 touchdowns, 6.5 interceptions, and a 94.8 passer rating over five seasons in Kansas City, guiding the Chiefs to three playoff berths before giving way to Patrick Mahomes in 2018.
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Matt Schaub only started two games over his first three NFL seasons, but that wasn’t necessarily because he was untalented. Schaub was stuck behind Atlanta Falcons starter Michael Vick until being traded to the Texans and head coach Gary Kubiak in 2007.
Two years later, Schaub earned his first Pro Bowl nod after leading the NFL with 4,770 passing yards. He helped Houston to playoff berths in 2011 and 2012, grabbing his second Pro Bowl appearance in the latter season.
Schaub ranked 14th in EPA per dropback during his years as the Texans’ primary starter (2007-2012).
Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers
Jake Delhomme had the most challenging path to NFL playing time among the quarterbacks listed here. While Darnold, Alex Smith, and others were first-round selections, Delhomme wasn’t drafted and spent most of his mid-20s in NFL Europe.
Delhomme finally became a starter for the Panthers during his age-28 season — and you might remember what happened next.
Delhomme led Carolina to a division title and a Super Bowl appearance, where the Panthers narrowly lost to the New England Patriots. He remained Carolina’s QB1 for the next six years.
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
Matt Hasselbeck spent three seasons behind Brett Favre with the Green Bay Packers and apparently did enough to impress head coach Mike Holmgren. In 2001, Holmgren — who by then had become Seattle’s HC — traded for Hasselbeck, swapping first-round picks with Green Bay while also sending a third-rounder.
Hasselbeck was the Seahawks’ primary starter for the next decade, earning three Pro Bowl nods in the process. He went to the playoffs every season from 2003 to 2007 and again in 2010. Hasselbeck’s 2005 Seahawks went 13-3 and advanced to Super Bowl XL, a 21-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Trent Green, Kansas City Chiefs
Trent Green didn’t make his first NFL start until his age-28 season in 1998. He missed the 1999 campaign with an ankle injury and subsequently lost his starting job with the Rams to future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.
Things didn’t take off for Green until the Rams traded him to the Chiefs in 2001. Working with offensive coordinator Al Saunders, Green lit up the league. Kansas City ranked first in scoring in 2002 and 2003 and second in 2004. He led the NFL in TD rate and yards per attempt in 2002 and earned Pro Bowl nods in 2003 and 2005.
Kerry Collins, New York Giants
Kerry Collins might be the cleanest late-bloomer comparable for Darnold. Like the new Vikings starter, Collins was a top draft pick from a high-profile college. The Panthers took Collins fifth overall out of Penn State in the 1995 NFL Draft and immediately installed him as their starter.
Collins made the Pro Bowl in his second season but struggles with alcoholism eventually led to his departure from Carolina. After entering the 1999 season as a backup with the Giants, Collins replaced starter Kent Graham in Week 11 and guided Big Blue to a Super Bowl appearance the following season.
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Collins remained a full-time NFL starter through his age-33 season. He started 15 games as a 36-year-old for the 2008 Tennessee Titans and finished second in Comeback Player of the Year voting.
Rich Gannon, Oakland Raiders
After spending the first three years of his NFL career as a strict backup, Rich Gannon finally became the Vikings’ starting QB in 1990. He started 11 games in each of the following three seasons but constantly fought off injuries and competition.
After a dismal 1993 campaign with Washington, Gannon sat out 1994 with a shoulder injury. He flashed for the Chiefs from 1995 to 1998, but Gannon’s career took off when he signed with the Raiders as a 34-year-old in 1999.
He earned Pro Bowl nods in the next four years, first-team All-Pro honors in 2000 and 2002, and won NFL MVP after leading the league with 4,689 passing yards in 2002.
Hopefully, Darnold won’t have to wait until his mid-30s to resurrect his career, but Gannon fits the same big-armed mold.
Steve Young, San Francisco 49ers
No, we don’t think Darnold has a shot at becoming the next Steve Young. While Darnold has a shot to revitalize his career with Minnesota, his chances of turning into a Hall of Famer like Young seem incredibly small.
We’ve probably seen enough from Darnold to rule out Canton; he’s already attempted 1,811 NFL passes at age 27. Young, meanwhile, had only attempted 825 passes by the time he took over as the 49ers’ starting quarterback in 1991.
Young was electric as Joe Montana’s replacement, winning two NFL MVP awards and a Super Bowl trophy over the next nine years. He led the NFL in passer rating six times, completion rate and yards per attempt five times, touchdown rate three times, and interception rate twice.
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