When fantasy football drafts opened up in earnest in July, Travis Etienne Jr. and Isiah Pacheco were separated by a full round in ADP.
Since then, however, the gap has been cut in half, with the Kansas City Chiefs bell cow making a push into the late stages of the second round and carrying serious momentum.
We know both are versatile options at the peak of their powers entering their age-25 seasons. A top-10 finish at the position for the season is well within the range of outcomes for both.
There might not be a “wrong” decision when it comes to drafting Pacheco or Etienne, but one will be better than the other, and my job is to give you the best chance at nailing this pick.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Isiah Pacheco
He was a cheat code early in the draft process when he could be had in the late third round, but Pacheco’s ADP continues to rise to where it should be. He’s now considered a late second-round pick, a price that is still palatable but not a “must draft” price tag.
Pacheco is just trailing Etienne and Derrick Henry in terms of ADP at the position. You could justify taking him over either of them (keep reading), but they’re in the same tier at the very least, and the cheapest player within a tier often catches my eye.
Elite receivers occupy the first half of Round 1 in most fantasy drafts. Assuming that’s the case for you, all three of these running backs are a strong addition to your roster. I’d argue for Pacheco as an elevated floor play with the potential to flirt with top-five production at the position if everything runs out in his favor.
The postseason doesn’t count for fantasy purposes, but we can very much use it as a learning tool. Think of the playoffs as a truth serum — when all of a team’s chips are in the middle of the table, it can be enlightening to see how players are used regarding their future there.
During their run to a second straight Super Bowl, Pacheco was handed the ball 20.3 times per game and caught every one of his targets. In an offense with one of the best to ever do it under center, they called Pacheco’s number early and often.
Potential for really strong Year 3 Isiah Pacheco workload. Only played 63% of the snaps & ran 39% of the routes in 2023.
* No significant adds to RB room
* Jerick McKinnon still a FA
* #Chiefs been loathe to use CEH
* Chiefs led NFL in screen targets per game (5.7) and were 2nd… pic.twitter.com/HrtJ99eCmd— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
It’s hard to overstate how impressive that is. And with the Rutgers product at the peak of his powers, there’s no reason to bet against him in what figures again to be one of the best offenses in the NFL.
The YAC (yards after contact) on rushing attempts is here to stay as long as he’s healthy. Pacheco is a downhill runner who often has space to operate due to the respect given to Patrick Mahomes. I love that stability, but in an era where few two-down RBs consistently grace fantasy lineups, Pacheco’s receiving growth in 2023 has me confident in paying for his services this season.
Last season, Pacheco had nine games with at least three grabs — not bad for a player who averaged under a target per game as a rookie. There was one player last season with at least 50 catches and 1,100 rushing yards, and he happens to be the 1.01 pick in most fantasy leagues.
Why can’t Pacheco hit those benchmarks in 2024?
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Travis Etienne Jr.
In fantasy sports, I generally believe that — in the middle of the age curve — once a player proves he has a skill, he owns it. That sounds reasonably simple, but every season, ADPs tend to forget some past production.
Etienne’s upside is the perfect example of applying this train of thought, and that is why I’m going to have some shares this season. Entering his age-25 campaign, we’ve seen him do it all.
After missing his rookie year, Etienne thrived in space as a runner (5.1 yards per carry) and showed the type of explosive potential we look for from a first-year ball carrier in Year 2. As a third-year player, he not only gave us the production as the pass catcher he was tabbed to be (13 more catches in 2023 than targets the season prior), but he proved himself more than capable of handling volume at 19.1 touches per game.
What more could we ask for?
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
Etienne has yet to miss a game since his rookie season ended, and the Jacksonville Jaguars figure to count on him more, as their pass game is less intimidating on paper than it was last season. Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 23 overall pick) has replaced Calvin Ridley at receiver following a season in which quarterback Trevor Lawrence battled injuries left and right.
The continued spike in Etienne’s usage is the best way to work in Thomas and to keep the franchise signal-caller healthy, which is great news for fantasy managers!
Etienne’s yards per carry dropping by 25.5% from Year 1 to Year 2 is discouraging, but I’d caution against reading too much into it. The Jacksonville offense as a whole underachieved in 2023, which shrunk his running space.
That’s a minor concern, but without much role competition, I’m not worried about it when it comes to projecting 2024.
Tank Bigsby was a third-round pick in 2023, and despite limited efficiency from Etienne, he hardly sniffed the field (50 carries, 2.6 yards per carry).
D’Ernest Johnson and rookie Keilan Robinson will compete for that RB2 role and could emerge as spot-start fantasy options should Etienne get banged up, but none of them are likely to take any sort of food off his plate.
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
At the end of the day, I’m boring. I like my chicken and vegetables for dinner. I drive close to the speed limit. I don’t drink. I prefer spreadsheets to superhero movies. And, most importantly, I prefer stability when drafting in the early rounds.
Looking at the prospect profiles of these two, Etienne was supposed to be the superior pass catcher, while the hard-nosed running of Pacheco should’ve paved the way for more consistency on the ground. The problem, you see, is that one of those assumptions has proven true and the other not so much.
Rush Rate of 5+ yards in 2023
- Pacheco: 35.1% (19th among 49 qualifiers), just ahead of Jonathan Taylor
- Etienne: 29.6% (40th), just behind Tyler Allgeier
Kansas City’s workhorse is living up to his scouting report, but he also averaged 3.8% more PPR points per target than Etienne a season ago.
Of course, part of that is the greatness of Patrick Mahomes, but I see no reason to factor that out as No. 15 still is wearing Chiefs red as far as I know.
At the end of the day, this coin flip is a simple solution for this simple man.
The Chiefs have been a top-five offense in red zone drives in each of the past five seasons, and Pacheco’s role in those spots is unquestioned.
The Jags, on the other hand, ranked 15th last season, and some of us on Brian Thomas Island believe that Etienne may not be the go-to option as this offense approaches the scoring area.
The industry doesn’t yet agree with me on this one, and by no means am I sad with a roster that includes Etienne. It’s just not happening very often because Pacheco is usually available as well.
