The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Carolina Panthers in Week 12. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Isiah Pacheco.
Is Isiah Pacheco Playing in Week 12?
Although Isiah Pacheco appeared to be trending toward a Week 12 return, the Chiefs will give the running back at least one more week to recover.
Pacheco has been on IR since fracturing his fibula in Week 2. He practiced on a limited basis all week, while multiple reports indicated he was ready to face the Panthers on Sunday. According to NFL Network, Pacheco is healthy enough to play, but Kansas City isn’t rushing him back.
Pacheco was also limited for every Chiefs practice leading up to Week 11.
It remains to be seen how K.C. will divide touches between Pacheco and Hunt once the former returns. Hunt has finished as fantasy’s RB11 or better in four of seven games.
“We’ll find a way. Both of them are good players,” head coach Andy Reid said of the Pacheco-Hunt split. “We’ll find a way to get both of them in if and when that takes place. That’s a good problem to have.”
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Outlook
Including the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco is averaging 18.45 PPR points per game over his past 10 games. That would be RB5 this season, just ahead of Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Chiefs have been projecting a late November return for Pacheco (leg), and news broke on Sunday that the expectation is for him to return to action this weekend. That is not the case — we’ll have to wait at least another week.
I, however, find it unlikely that Pacheco will assume an elite workload immediately upon his return. Kansas City’s record gives them a luxury with their RB1 that a team like San Francisco didn’t have.
That buys Kareem Hunt managers at least one more week of fantasy viability.
Stay close to the reporting, but I’m tentatively expecting a Week 13 return to fantasy lineups. Week 13 is not only a good matchup, but it gives Pacheco additional time to recover before a Week 14 showdown with the Chargers and approach his top form when the Chiefs need it most.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 12
Pacheco is projected to score 0 points.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) James Cook | BUF (at KC)
3) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
4) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. BUF)
5) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)
7) Ray Davis | BUF (at KC)
8) Ty Johnson | BUF (at KC)
9) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. BUF)
10) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. WAS)
11) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at PHI)
12) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Carson Steele | KC (vs. BUF)
14) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (at KC)
15) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
