Los Angeles Chargers running back Isaiah Spiller joins a team with a wide-open depth chart behind starter Austin Ekeler. Once considered the best running back in this class, Spiller’s draft stock tumbled after a poor combine. What can fantasy football managers expect from Spiller in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Isaiah Spiller’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Prior to the 2021 college football season, Spiller was in the conversation to be the first running back off the board. There was even talk he could sneak into the back end of the first round.
Spiller’s draft stock plummeted after a disappointing combine. He ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at his pro day, which adjusted to 4.69. Hayden Winks did a study on running backs in 2019, and one of the conclusions was we can basically write off any running back that runs below a 4.65. There are, of course, outliers that buck this trend, but history is working against Spiller having a successful NFL career.
The potential second-round pick ended up falling to the Chargers in the fourth round. Day 3 draft capital is just another red flag on Spiller’s profile. With all that said, I do think Spiller is a better redraft pick than in dynasty.
Spiller rushed for over 1,000 yards in his final two seasons at Texas A&M and posted a 9.8% target share in 2021. This isn’t some horrible prospect who’s completely incompetent at playing running back. Spiller has a plausible path to fantasy value in 2022.
How the Chargers’ depth chart impacts Isaiah Spiller’s fantasy projection for the season
Most NFL running backs are at least replacement-level talents. That is to say, if you put them in the game and gave them volume, they would perform decent enough. I would be very reluctant to describe Spiller as below replacement level.
Last season, Ekeler saw a career-high 18.75 opportunities per game (targets plus carries). While he only missed one game all season (and it was due to COVID-19), the Chargers have no desire to make Ekeler a 300-touch back.
Ever since Melvin Gordon left, this team has been searching for a capable complement to Ekeler. They had Justin Jackson for a couple of years. I liked him well enough, but the Chargers have clearly been trying to upgrade the position.
Their first attempt was drafting Joshua Kelley in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft. That didn’t work. Then, they took a shot on Larry Rountree in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. That didn’t work either. Spiller has a very realistic chance at opening the season as the Chargers’ RB2.
Spiller may have some standalone fantasy value
Spiller could very well end up handling 6-8 carries a game as well as see a couple of targets. He’s obviously not taking receiving work away from Ekeler, but he’s a good pass catcher who will inevitably catch the occasional dump-off if he’s on the field for 30-35% of the game.
There’s also upside in the event of an Ekeler injury. Spiller’s size and receiving acumen would make him the leading candidate for passing-down and goal-line work. He’s unlikely to be used as a three-down back, but even a 50% snap share in Ekeler’s absence would put him firmly in the RB2 range.
This is an explosive offense led by the ascending Justin Herbert and a dynamic wide receiver duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They are going to score a ton of points. If Spiller can carve out a meaningful role, he will have fantasy value.
I’m not that optimistic about Spiller’s long-term viability, but we’ve seen far inferior running backs excel in bursts. Spiller could certainly be that guy as a rookie.
Spiller’s ADP for 2022
Spiller’s ADP is around 120th overall, as the RB45. As a group, our analysts are slightly down on him following some mixed usage patterns in the preseason, casting uncertainty about his role. In our 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, he sits 133rd overall as the 53rd-ranked back.
Spiller is a fine RB4 this season. There’s the potential for him to carve out enough of a role where he can put up 6-8 ppg. And, of course, if Ekeler ever misses time, Spiller appears to be the favorite for the lead-back role. He took significantly more first-team reps in training camp than Kelley or Rountree. The usage in preseason tempered some expectations, but it has also seen his ADP drop a little as well.
Fantasy managers don’t need to target Spiller aggressively but should feel fine taking him at his ADP given his upside.
