The San Francisco 49ers have represented a fantasy football gold mine under head coach Kyle Shanahan, meaning that even their backups and backup-to-the-backups have warranted fantasy managers’ attention.
While Jordan Mason has been a bell-cow back early on with Christian McCaffrey injured, rookie Isaac Guerendo finally saw an uptick in touches in Week 3. Below we analyze whether Guerendo is worth stashing when managing the waiver wire this week.
Should Isaac Guerendo Be Added on the Fantasy Waiver Wire in Week 4?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
A fourth-round rookie out of Louisville, Guerendo was the clear No. 3 running back to start the season. That role doesn’t hold much value in an offense where McCaffrey was among the highest-usage running backs in the league.
Even after moving up a spot on the depth chart with CMC injured, Guerendo still ceded nearly every snap to Mason. The verdict from film analysts early on was that Guerendo’s vision wasn’t quite ready for action in the Niners’ wide zone running scheme.
This is why Guerendo isn’t going to be the number 2 back for a while. He’s not ready.
Have to be more patient pressing the OZ and trust Trent is going to open that hole. pic.twitter.com/jFK8Iizjaw
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) September 16, 2024
However, after playing a combined four offensive snaps and receiving one touch from Weeks 1-2 combined, Guerendo exceeded those very modest totals in Sunday’s loss vs. the Los Angeles Rams. He had five rushes for 19 yards in nine offensive snaps, spelling Mason on the team’s first drive of the third quarter.
Now to be clear, fantasy managers obviously cannot start Guerendo off that small uptick without any injury news on Mason. For the season, Mason has still vacuumed up 77% of the 49ers’ rushing attempts, the highest rate in the NFL.
If you isolate that to just RB carries, Mason’s share rockets up to 94.5%, the second-highest of any running back this season behind Saquon Barkley.
The hope for fantasy managers is that Shanahan identifies Mason’s waning effectiveness and decides that a more even timeshare is worth pursuing. Mason’s yards per rush has decreased every game this season, dropping from 5.3 in the opener to 5.0 in Week 2 and 4.1 on Sunday. He also hasn’t provided much receiving value, with just four catches for 20 yards.
Guerendo won’t replicate what McCaffrey brings to the passing game, but he did rank fourth on Louisville’s roster in 2023 with 22 receptions for 234 receiving yards (10.6 yards per reception).
In the short term, McCaffrey is guaranteed to miss at least two more weeks on injured reserve — and perhaps longer. The only other running backs on San Francisco’s active roster are fourth-year pro Patrick Taylor Jr. (zero offensive snaps all season) and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The 49ers do also have Ke’Shawn Vaughn (2020 third-round pick of the Buccaneers) on the practice squad.
Thus, for roughly the next month, Guerendo is one Mason injury away from likely seeing significant touches.
The Niners’ offense is not quite in its usual high-powered form with a litany of injuries, but that would still make Guerendo an extremely valuable must-add. If bench space permits, the Mason manager should add Guerendo. However, that could be tough if said owner is also stashing McCaffrey on the bench.
Otherwise, Guerendo is really only worth a speculative add from managers in deeper leagues with ample bench space available.