Tyler Lockett is dealing with a thigh injury heading into Week 1. Whether Lockett is playing will determine his fantasy value and that of his quarterback, Geno Smith.
The Seahawks are facing the Denver Broncos and are entering a new era after Pete Carroll’s departure. Lockett’s sure hands are something the Seahawks hope will be on the field in Week 1.
Will Tyler Lockett Be Active in Week 1?
We believe so after hearing comments from new head coach Mike Macdonald and his practice reports from Friday. Things can always change over the weekend, but we expect this aging veteran to suit up against the Denver Broncos.
#Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett, listed as questionable with a thigh injury, is expected to play today, source said.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 8, 2024
All the reports regarding Lockett’s status are promising, and fantasy managers should expect him on the field this week. That will be a relief for fantasy managers in deeper leagues.
Lockett’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Lockett is an integral part of the Seahawks’ offense. Last season, he received the 24th most targets in the NFL and produced 79 receptions for 894 yards and five touchdowns.
Lockett is about to enter a pass-happy offense under his new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb. However, his numbers last season were nothing special to make us think he will dominate within this new offensive scheme.
Lockett has never been a player to provide yards after the catch (YAC), but last season was especially rough as TruMedia ranked Lockett as the 114th best in terms of total YAC. He also produced the 38th-best air years per target last season, a different story from years past, where Lockett would instantly change his fantasy outlook down the field.
The one thing Lockett still has going for him that could excite us is how much Smith trusts him. Lockett produced the 26th most receptions that became first downs or touchdowns. When in doubt, Smith targeted his veteran wide receiver to bail him out of sticky situations.
So why is Lockett further down our rankings? The first player to receive a look in the passing offense will always be DK Metcalf. After Metcalf, Lockett has to compete with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
There is also Noah Fant, a talented pass catcher at the tight end position. Finally, we deal with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet as well. There are a lot of mouths to feed, and Smith can only cook so much, leaving someone hungry for more.
With his decline in stats, this aging veteran will not produce a high ceiling-level play for your fantasy lineups. Lockett faces the 12th-best fantasy defense regarding fantasy points per game in the wide receiver position.
Our PFN Start/Sit Optimization tool says that his teammate Smith-Njigba will outscore him as Lockett is only projected for eight total points while the second-year budding star is projected for 9.7 fantasy points in Week 1.
Eight-point projections do not move the needle enough to elevate our fantasy lineup. We should be looking for players who can elevate above their projections rather than just providing us with the floor provided.
If you have another option to elevate your total predictions, we recommend entering them in your starting lineup instead.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Lockett in Week 1
Counting out this veteran isn’t for the faint of heart, but with seven games last season with three or fewer receptions, it’s impossible to enter 2024 with confidence.
Lockett will turn 32 later this month and is coming off of his worst season in terms of fantasy points to expectation since 2017. I have him positioned to be the fantasy WR3 in this offense, and that means it’ll take the perfect matchup for him to move onto my Flex radar — I don’t think this is that with Denver blitzing at the fourth-highest rate last season.
What made Lockett special for years was his ability to win deep and connect with Russell Wilson on those bombs. Things aren’t the same with Smith; if the Broncos are going to bring the heat, he’s not going to have the time needed to land the type of splash play that you’d need to justify going this direction.