Every year, the NFL Draft injects a ton of new talent into the league. Naturally, this shakes up fantasy football values. With the Indianapolis Colts making Tyler Warren the second tight end off the board, what does this mean for the fantasy values of Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and whoever starts at quarterback?
Fantasy Impact of Colts Drafting Tyler Warren
The Colts were heavily expected to draft a tight end. In fact, they were widely expected to take Warren as the first tight end off the board. The fact that he was the second one drafted isn’t really a negative, as he still went in the first half of the first round.
It’s been quite a while since the Colts had a fantasy-relevant tight end. You have to go all the way back to Dallas Clark for a truly impactful player, but guys like Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and Jack Doyle had moments.
After the failed Jelani Woods experiment, the Colts have employed a makeshift tight end room, without a guy they could really trust. Warren should give them a stable option.
While it’s not great that Warren is already 23 years old and played five years in college, that makes him more pro-ready than your typical rookie TE. He couldn’t have a clearer path to starting. Whether his quarterbacks can get him the ball enough for him to make a fantasy impact is a different story.
Michael Pittman Jr.
Last year, Pittman played through a back injury that almost landed him on injured reserve. That played a large role in him averaging just 10.4 fantasy points per game.
Now healthy, Pittman should be much better this season, and Warren’s presence is not going to negatively impact him in any way.
Josh Downs
Downs actually outproduced Pittman last season, averaging 13.1 fantasy points per game. It would not be the least bit surprising if Downs wound up being the most valuable pass-catcher on this team.
There is a bit more concern for Warren taking something away from Downs, as the latter saw a 6.9 aDOT and ran 73% of his routes from the slot. Warren can definitely get downfield, but tight ends typically thrive underneath. If there is some overlap, Downs could lose some volume.
At the same time, Downs is still improving and has a ton of room to grow. While it’s unlikely he improves upon his 25.6% target share, more overall passing volume or higher quality targets would go a long way.
Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones
Both Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones are likely to make starts this season. Neither was particularly effective last season, but Jones has at least shown an ability to get his receivers the ball, specifically underneath. He would be the better option for the fantasy values of the receivers.
Richardson’s fantasy value stems from his mobility. If he progresses enough as a passer, that will keep him in the starting role, which is what matters most for his status as a QB1.
Having Warren as a new weapon is obviously a plus, but he would benefit Jones more than Richardson purely because Jones is not as prolific a runner and is a more accurate passer.
