The Las Vegas Raiders released quarterback Derek Carr on Tuesday in order to avoid paying the 31-year-old a $40.4 million bonus. The Raiders tried to trade Carr before the guaranteed money would trigger, but the team lacked leverage as Carr used his no-trade clause to force his way to free agency. Las Vegas had been seeking a third-round pick in the event Carr opted for a trade over becoming a free agent.
The move comes less than one year after the Raiders and Carr agreed to a three-year, $120.5 million extension. Carr’s camp wisely added an early bonus trigger date that forced the Raiders’ hand in case the 2022 season didn’t go as planned. The Raiders bombed despite their immense spending last offseason, leading them to make a tough decision on a player who was solid in his nine years with the franchise.
Derek Carr’s Release Creates Immediate Pressure on Raiders
Alas, Carr was good but not good enough to push the team to the next level in the playoff race. Making the decision to move on from Carr is understandable, but it’s a risky move that puts pressure on Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels to find an upgrade.
Releasing Carr cleared $29.25 million from the Raiders’ cap sheet, giving them enough room to chase anyone who could be available this offseason.
Though Carr wasn’t overly dynamic during his Raiders tenure, producing only one season with more than 28 passing touchdowns and posting his lowest completion rate since his rookie season in 2022, he’s an average quarterback, at worst.
He left the franchise as the all-time leader in yards, completions, and touchdowns. However, his fit with McDaniels wasn’t right. He had the league’s third-highest interception rate (2.8%) and second-lowest red zone completion rate (42%) despite being an efficient passer throughout his career.
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He’ll sign somewhere quickly and give his new team the chance to make the playoffs if the situation is right.
It’s clear Vegas wasn’t that team, as they have to deal with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert four times a year. This team went 6-11 in McDaniels’ first season despite getting a career year from running back Josh Jacobs and adding All-Pro talent in Davante Adams. They lost a whopping nine games by one score, giving credence to the idea that a better quarterback might’ve been the difference between their final record and the playoffs.
The nature in which Vegas lost games was especially concerning. They allowed several huge comebacks and fell to the Indianapolis Colts in Jeff Saturday’s NFL debut as a head coach. There was a large segment of Raiders fans calling for McDaniels’ job before the season was over because the team regressed from their 2021 playoff appearance in his first year.
There must be urgency moving forward because the Raiders didn’t have an heir apparent on the roster ready to take Carr’s spot.
Raiders Must Make Offer for Aaron Rodgers
Replacing even an average quarterback isn’t easy in the NFL. There are only a handful of decent passers available in any given offseason, and this year is no different.
Tom Brady’s retirement took one option off the market. The Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks could remove two more if they franchise tag or extend Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith, respectively. That leaves one obvious upgrade who could potentially be available to acquire: Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers, who is still mulling whether he wants to retire, play for the Green Bay Packers, or play for someone else, would still be a bit of a gamble for the Raiders.
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The 39-year-old struggled in 2022 without Adams but came on strong at the end of the season after he built rapport with his young receiving core. He and the Packers paid the price for not fully buying in until too late in the offseason.
Getting a focused Rodgers and giving him Jacobs, Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow has to be intriguing. Though it might cost the team their seventh overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the chance to compete for a playoff spot is worth it for a staff that might not be here beyond the season if they fall flat.
The other veteran option is Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo can’t be franchise tagged by the San Francisco 49ers, and it’s not a stretch to believe both he and McDaniels would be interested in reuniting after the two worked together in New England. However, considering Garoppolo’s durability issues and his own physical limitations, that’s a lateral move, at best, for this regime.
Raiders 2023 NFL Draft Options
Here’s where losing Carr without getting an asset in return really hurts. Had the team properly protected itself from Carr bombing in 2022, they could’ve pushed his bonus date back until after the draft and been able to drum up more of a trade market for him.
Letting him walk for free as opposed to getting at least a Day 2 pick in return only happened because of a lack of planning and foresight.
The Raiders can recover, regardless. It’s unclear whether they can stay at No. 7 overall and land one of the top-four quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Houston, Indianapolis, Seattle, and Detroit could each justifiably draft a quarterback. Atlanta, Carolina, and Tennessee select right after Vegas and could trade into the top six for someone.
This is where the Raiders are operating at a disadvantage in leverage. Not trading up is a massive risk. Even if they know they have a good chance at getting one of the four quarterbacks, will they get the one they feel they can develop quickly?
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The best way to ensure they land one of their top targets is to trade up.
Alabama’s Bryce Young is the least physically impressive prospect of the bunch but might be the best gamer. Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud seems to have the best floor because of his terrific pocket passing but comes with concerns surrounding his upside. Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis have tremendous physical tools but need mechanical refinement and reps to improve.
McDaniels and his staff must figure out their preference among that group and decide which they can win with. Then, they have to execute a fair trade, if it’s necessary, as they look to land their next franchise star.
I think either Young or Levis would be most intriguing to McDaniels based on his career résumé of developing athletic but pass-first QBs in Denver and New England. Both might require a trade up, though Carr could land in Carolina and theoretically remove one threat from Vegas’ quest to draft a quarterback.
