The New York Jets are 2-6 with a negative point differential and turnover margin. Aaron Rodgers has played every game, while Davante Adams has played in two. It’s difficult to put together what has caused the Jets to underperform expectations, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult for them to turn it around.
Contrarily, the Houston Texans are 6-2 with a positive point differential and turnover margin. The defense has looked the part, and C.J. Stroud has as well. The rest of the offense, though…not so much.
Latest NFL Week 9 Promo Codes
Before we get into it, check out all the latest Sportsbooks promos nationwide. If you are already signed up with a book, continue to scroll down for the picks and predictions for every game. Note that sportsbook promo codes will only appear if you are in a legalized area.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Jets -1.5 - Moneyline
Jets (-125); Texans (+105) - Over/Under
42 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
MetLife Stadium
Texans vs. Jets Preview and Prediction
The Jets rank 19th in expected points added (EPA), per TruMedia. In seasons where Rodgers has played more than eight games, this is the worst offense he has led by a wide margin. The problem isn’t pressure since the Jets rank ninth in EPA when pressured, plus their offensive line has given up the second-fewest pressures in terms of percentage in the NFL.
With the second-fastest time to throw, New York expects its scheme and wide receivers to get open quickly. Next Gen Stats has three Jets wide receivers with enough targets to qualify for their separation ranking. Out of 116 qualified players, they rank 46th (60th percentile), 58th (50th), and 107th (eighth).
To add to this, Scott Barrett created something called average separation score, which goes one step further than the separation scores by adjusting for context like the type of route, defender position, etc.
As you can see in the chart below, New York’s weapons are all on the left side of the chart (other than Garrett Wilson), showing they aren’t doing a great job of getting open.
Average Separation Score vs. Yards Per Route Run
+ @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/O9zzwUyfO1— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 29, 2024
This week, the Jets will face one of the better defenses in the NFL. The Texans rank 14th in generating pressure and 10th in defensive EPA (fourth against the pass, 18th against the run). Unfortunately for them, the Texans’ defense also does a great job of setting themselves up in situations to face the pass and play to their strengths.
To quantify this, I calculated the expected pass and run rates against a defense in neutral game scripts to identify how opponents attack a defense in situations that aren’t high leverage. I wanted to eliminate the high-leverage situations because they skew a team’s approach to attacking the defense. Houston ranks ninth in the NFL in pass rate over expected in this pass-funnel metric.
The Texans’ offense has struggled to get going this season, in large part due to injury. They rank 20th in the NFL in EPA this year and surprisingly stay at 20th in EPA per game in the 80 plays they have run this season without Nico Collins or Stefon Diggs on the field. If you extend this to 2023, plays without Collins (injury) and Diggs (not on the team) had a -1.71 EPA per game, good for 18th and slightly better than the -2.53 of this season.
The focal point of Houston’s offense will be Tank Dell and Joe Mixon, which is still formidable but not nearly as potent as the expectation coming into the season.
The biggest issue with not having Collins or Diggs is explosive plays. The Texans rank fourth in plays of 10+ yards and 19th in plays of 20+ this season. Without Collins or Diggs, they drop to last in both.
You may be thinking that this is because they only have 80 plays without them. Well, when you adjust it to a per-play basis, Houston still drops from fourth to 19th in percentage of plays that result in 10 or more yards. This should help a Jets defense that is about average in giving up explosive plays and has the second-highest run funnel in the NFL.
With a defense that ranks 26th in rushing EPA and a scheme that lends itself to teams running the ball, New York will likely benefit from Houston’s injuries, allowing them to key in on stopping Mixon.
What helps the Texans significantly is that they drop from fourth to 14th in EPA against stacked boxes in plays without Collins and Diggs. The Jets have run the second-most plays in football with a stacked box but rank 30th in EPA when using them.
The final aspect to analyze is the play in the trenches. Houston ranks 21st in pressure allowed and 14th in time to throw, as well as 23rd in quick pressure allowed. The Jets’ defense ranks third in quick pressure generated and sixth in pressure generated overall.
The team with the most similar profile to the Jets is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both offenses are top four in quickest time to throw and top four in pressure allowed.
Against the Jaguars, the Texans only amassed six pressures and allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw for 169 yards and two touchdowns while forcing zero turnovers. They also allowed 6.6 yards per carry on the ground.
Houston won the game by airing it out 40 times for 345 yards and two touchdowns. Diggs and Collins accounted for 63.8% of Stroud’s passing yards and 63% of his passing completions.
Jacksonville runs man coverage 40.1% of the time (second-most) but only ran it on 5.9% of its plays against Houston. The Jets won’t have to make this adjustment (eighth-highest man coverage rate) because the EPA split in man vs. zone is 14th to 21st when fully healthy and 25th to 18th without Diggs/Collins.
My pick: Jets -125
