The Houston Texans are one win away from clinching their first playoff berth since 2019 despite some struggles with health and poor performances down the stretch of the season. Houston has certainly seen its ups and downs in recent weeks, but Sunday’s 26-3 victory over the Tennessee Titans kept it in control of its destiny entering Saturday’s all-important regular-season finale against the Indianapolis Colts.
Houston Texans Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 6 and 8:10 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
The Houston Texans have won the AFC South and will host the Cleveland Browns on Wild Card Weekend.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (10-7) defeated Ravens (13-4)
Texans (10-7) defeated Colts (9-8)
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Titans (6-11) defeated Jaguars (9-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Texans entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Texans’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Houston enters Week 18 just outside the AFC’s top seven teams due to its head-to-head tiebreaker with the Colts, but can very easily punch its ticket to the postseason. The several scenarios in which it can qualify for the playoffs add up to good odds of doing so, specifically a roughly 62% chance to make it based on data gathered from simulations of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
The Texans’ easiest path to clinching a spot in the postseason is plenty straightforward — beat the Colts. That result would lock up a playoff berth, while a Houston win combined with the Jacksonville Jaguars losing to or tying with the Tennessee Titans would jump the Texans up to winning the AFC South altogether.
MORE: Houston Texans Depth Chart
That latter option is the only path to Houston winning the division at this point, though there is one other longshot avenue for earning a postseason berth. A tie with the Colts combined with both the Jaguars losing to the Titans and the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to or tying with the Baltimore Ravens would also see the Texans make the playoffs.
Houston has three distinct possibilities for playoff seeding in the event that it does punch its ticket.
The Texans will be the No. 4 seed in the AFC if they win the division by beating the Colts and the Jaguars losing. Houston could be the No. 6 seed with a win, Jacksonville winning, and the Buffalo Bills losing to the Miami Dolphins. A Buffalo win over Miami, though, would relegate Houston to the seventh seed in the event it is a Wild Card qualifier.
Given those potential seeds, there are four different likely opponents for the Texans in the opening round of the playoffs.
Finishing fourth in the AFC by winning the division would pit Houston against the Cleveland Browns, which are locked in as the No. 5 seed entering Week 18. A sixth-seed finish in the conference would have the Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs, which are locked in as the AFC’s No. 3 seed entering Week 18.
If Houston finishes seventh in the conference, it would face the winner of the Bills-Dolphins game, as that team would clinch the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
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