It might have seemed like an impossible scenario when the season began, but the Houston Texans have scratched and clawed their way back into the playoff picture. Thanks to a defense that has stifled opponents at an unprecedented rate, they are right there in the race for a playoff spot.
Now, at 10-5 after their win over the Las Vegas Raiders, they have emerged as a legitimate threat in the AFC and have a chance to win their division despite once trailing both the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars by a wide margin. Let’s break down the chances they have of making it to the playoffs for the third consecutive season, or even winning their division outright.
What Are the Texans’ Playoff Chances?
The Texans have caught fire at the perfect time. After an uneven 0–3 start to the season, Houston has rattled off seven straight wins to surge back into the playoff picture. With a favorable remaining schedule, the Texans’ postseason outlook is now as strong as it has been all year.
According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, after week 16, Houston has a 96.30% chance of making the playoffs and a 24.10% chance of winning the AFC South.
#UPDATE: The Jaguars have secured a spot in the playoffs after the Indianapolis Colts’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. The Texans now need just one more win to secure a playoff spot. Similarly, Houston will make the playoffs if the Colts lose in Week 17.
The Texans won 23-21 against the Raiders, and C.J. Stroud threw for 187 yards and a touchdown. Nico Collins finished the game with four receptions for 59 yards, while Dalton Schultz scored a touchdown.
Here’s how the Texans’ playoff and division odds would change based on the outcomes involving Houston, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville:
If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Wins AND Jacksonville Wins:
- Playoff Odds: 93.3%
- Division Odds: 26.5%
If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Wins AND Jacksonville Loses:
- Playoff Odds: 95.1%
- Division Odds: 63.4%
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If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Loses AND Jacksonville Loses:
- Playoff Odds: 96.7%
- Division Odds: 63.4%
If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Loses AND Jacksonville Wins:
- Playoff Odds: 96.5%
- Division Odds: 26.1%
Indianapolis faces a challenging remaining schedule, with upcoming matchups against the San Francisco 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans, making their path to the postseason increasingly narrow. Houston, meanwhile, is currently positioned for a Wild Card spot and can realistically afford one loss.
That said, winning the division remains the Texans’ primary goal, and for that to happen, they’ll likely need help. Houston desperately needs Jacksonville to drop at least one game. That scenario was very much in play in Week 16, as the Jaguars faced the Denver Broncos, who entered the week riding an 11-game winning streak, but Jacksonville came away with a surprising win.
With momentum firmly on their side, the Texans are well-positioned to make a strong push toward both a playoff berth and a division title. Currently, they have a 0.40% chance to win the Super Bowl, but it will be tough to take down a team like the Texans due to their stellar defensive unit.
