If you’re looking for Week 4 XFL Orlando Guardians vs. Houston Roughnecks odds, picks, and predictions, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Guardians vs. Roughnecks Week 4 Odds and Betting Lines
The following odds and betting lines for the Guardians vs. Roughnecks are as of Thursday, March 9, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.
- Point Spread: Guardians (+8)
- Moneyline: Guardians (+300), Roughnecks (-365)
- Over/Under: 37.5 (-110)
Guardians vs. Roughnecks Picks and Predictions
My Week 3 XFL point spread and moneyline picks went a combined 6-2, continuing a pretty good run as we try to make sense of this re-engineered league. But my over/unders mostly tanked. So while I feel pretty bullish about the following point spread and moneyline predictions, I’d caution you to “wait and see” on the over/under.
This Saturday night contest features a 3-0 team with the league’s best point differential (+39) versus an 0-3 team with the league’s worst point differential (-40). Of course, anything can happen. But most realistic scenarios point to the Roughnecks running roughshod over the hapless Guardians.
MORE: 2023 XFL Standings | XFL TV Schedule
The timing is fascinating, though. Including the 2020 season, the Houston franchise remains undefeated at 8-0. They were by far the class of the XFL three years ago before pandemic concerns shut down the season, two days before the Guardians were scheduled to host them.
Based in New York, those 2020 Guardians had the second-best defense and second-worst offense in terms of points per game. It’s not a stretch to say that it could have been a preview of the title game.
Three years later, the Roughnecks are even more dominant than their previous iteration. As I wrote last week, this is arguably the XFL’s most complete team. Brandon Silvers, Max Borghi, and Jontre Kirklin are top two or top three at their respective positions. Deontay Burnett and Travell Harris are top 12 wideouts statistically. The team’s swarming defense has secured eight turnovers and 13 sacks.
Speaking of defense, Houston is yielding only 3.5 yards per carry and a 56.2% completion rate to QBs. Opponents have converted only 31% on third down. It’s all interconnected. Teams have struggled to sustain drives against Houston, and Orlando doesn’t seem poised to break that trend.
In fact, we might look back to Week 1, when these teams last battled. The Guardians actually played pretty well, jumping out to a 6-0 lead five minutes into the game. Houston didn’t take the lead for good until the second quarter.
The concern heading into Week 4 isn’t just a disparity of talent, which dramatically favors the Roughnecks. It’s also the fact that Orlando moved the ball pretty well in Week 1 when Houston was still getting the sea legs in the newly re-formed league. Guardians RBs Jah-Maine Martin and Kelvin Taylor averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 14 attempts. Paxton Lynch and Quinten Dormady, meanwhile, completed 69% of their passes for 278 yards.
It won’t get any easier this weekend. The Roughnecks are rounding into form, while the Guardians are still trying to figure out what works (and more, what doesn’t).
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In particular, Lynch has been barely adequate through three games. If Orlando had a decent backup QB, Lynch probably would have been benched by now. After averaging only 11 points per contest, this team is searching for something they probably don’t have.
Yes, Martin or Taylor could be a long-term answer in the backfield. And Cody Latimer leads an intriguingly capable receiving corps. But without a defense or a quarterback that can take over a game, the Guardians must play their best football to stay within 10 points. That’s a tough task for Saturday.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Roughnecks (-8)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Roughnecks (-365)
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 (-110)
