The Green Bay Packers are still alive in the NFC playoff race. If you said that earlier this season, or even a few weeks ago, people would have looked at you like you had ten heads and five arms. Yet, with two weeks to go in the NFL regular season, here we are. Let’s take a look at the Packers’ playoff chances and scenarios heading into their Week 17 showdown with the Minnesota Vikings.
Packers Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17
The Packers cannot clinch a playoff spot in Week 17. They actually can’t clinch a playoff spot until Week 18. But heading into Week 17, the Packers need several scenarios to play out in their favor for them to make the playoffs.
All of them involve them winning the remainder of their games. Let’s look at what needs to happen for them to have a spot in the postseason tournament, per NFL Playoff Scenarios.
4:30 p.m. ET Update
The Giants defeated the Colts
The Commanders lost to the Browns.
The Saints defeated the Eagles.
The Lions defeated the Bears.
The Buccaneers defeated the Panthers.
7:00 p.m. ET Update
The Packers defeated the Vikings.
The Seahawks defeated the Jets.
Following Week 17, the Packers control their own destiny. If they defeat the Lions in Week 18, they will make the playoffs. If the Packers lose to the Lions, they will be eliminated.
Scenario 1
The Packers win their two remaining games (Vikings and Detroit Lions), and the Washington Commanders lose to either the Cleveland Browns in Week 17 or Dallas Cowboys in Week 18.
Scenario 2
The Packers win their remaining two games, and the New York Giants lose to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 and Philadelphia Eagles in Week 18.
Scenario 3
The Packers win their remaining two games, the Commanders lose out, the Seattle Seahawks lose to the New York Jets in Week 17 and Los Angeles Rams in Week 18, and the New Orleans Saints lose to either the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 or Carolina Panthers in Week 18.
Scenario 4
The Packers win their remaining two games, the Commanders lose out, the Seahawks lose out, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 and Atlanta Falcons in Week 18.
Scenario 5
The Packers win their remaining two games, the Rams defeat the Seahawks in Week 18, the Commanders lose out, the Saints lose one of their two remaining games, and the Buccaneers beat the Panthers in Week 17.
Scenario 6
The Packers win their remaining two games, the Rams defeat the Seahawks in Week 18, the Commanders lose out, the Saints lose one of their two remaining games, and the Atlanta Falcons defeat the Buccaneers in Week 18.
Scenario 7
The Packers win their remaining two games, the Rams defeat the Seahawks in Week 18, the Commanders lose out, and the Buccaneers lose out.
Can the Packers Be Eliminated in Week 17?
Yes, the Packers can be eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17. Here are the different scenarios in which that can happen:
- The Packers lose to the Vikings, and the Lions beat the Chicago Bears.
- The Packers lose to the Vikings, and the Commanders beat the Browns.
It’s important to note that if the Packers defeat the Vikings in Week 17, there is no way they can be eliminated from playoff contention. It’s also important to know that the Packers losing to the Vikings doesn’t mean they are eliminated, either. They’ll still be in the hunt for a playoff spot in Week 18 if both the Lions and Commanders lose in Week 17. If that happens, their chances of making the playoffs will sit at 20%.
What Are the Packers’ Playoff Chances?
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Packers head into their Week 17 matchup with a 27% chance of making the playoffs. This is up from their 11% chance heading into last week’s matchup vs. the Miami Dolphins. If the Packers beat the Vikings, that jumps up to 56%. But if they lose, their chances of making the playoffs sit at 3%.
The Packers control their own destiny to an extent, especially after some key losses by opponents in Week 16. It’s important to note that the Packers do not have a chance of capturing the NFC North Division Title. That honor belongs to the Vikings.